I agree lol.. The harder and stronger you proclaim a move or price target, the less likely it is to happen. The market is like a child who will do the exact opposite of what you demand it to do (I am sure I will learn how it works with a child soon enough lol). BUT, as long as you stick to your analysis and have stop losses in place when you can verify that you are wrong, you still make the good money. I actually hope the downward move comes so I can grab some put ratio spreads on the VIX spike near 1200 or so...... The charts are pointing to a potential move back to 1220 but the FED is the wildcard of course. Unique pices of news throw TA out the window and that is why I have not opened a JULY SPX position yet. Also why on the move higher to resistance I closed out my ES put ratio spread for a nice 1 day flip. Right now I am in watch mode, scalping intraday with futures. I did enter a swing position today going short the EURO
I feel the exact same way coach. It could really go either way from this point. I am not saying that it will go to that level for sure, but if it does thats where I will start buying and not before until I asses the situation. I will always have price projections setup before hand so I can react immediately. Like you said the wildcard is the fed, so it lowers the ratings on my odds of selling off before then. Its all odds and probabilities in my trading plan.
often it is the most obvious cycles which do not hold up going forward. the first leg down on the sp was about 70 points, then a bounce of about 35 points. the next leg down was also about 70 points with another, you guessed it, 35 point bounce. how many others are waiting for the next 70 point drop? I'm not saying mark my words but I doubt we break 1200. the trendline beginning in aug of '04 is still in tact and held at 1220. Yesterday sold the 3x2 1205x1225 ratiospread for .5 credit near the lows.
I promised myself i'd say out of these discussions but since its a slow day i will comment on this. The issue with this statement is, how do you know what the majority is thinking(most obvious cycle as you put it) and whats even more important, how do you know even if it is what most are expecting that it wont hold up this time? To flip your statement on its face, maybe most are thinking we are still in a bull market and this was just a healthy correction and this is the time it will prove wrong. Anyway, pointless arguement but again such as trying to predict market moves of this magnitude.
if someone of my lowly intelligence can see it, that is my first clue of obvious-isity. the cycles which hold up best are volatility cycles.
July 1075/1050 ratio put spreads closed at $.45. Profit $1.45. Joining phil on the sidelines. EDIT: damn, i hate it when i screw up like this. As soon as i closed i noticed that the 1025 puts were going for .30. I could've bought the puts instead and be flat on the position and collect .15 more at expiration with no risk. Plus, huge winner if we crash. Things like these can really ruin a good trade sometimes. This would've been a nice credit fly to hold onto for the next 4 weeks.
if that was addressed to me, YEAH my sentiments exactly. Talk about being underpaid :eek: On a side note, i wonder what the 1150's were going for when you did your offset phil? What was the time stamp? I will go back and check. These ratio put verticals turned credit flys could be a nice trade going forward vs. a simple offset at the bounce and vix retreat. Still get your credit and go flat by leaving a huge potential win on the table with zero risk. What do you think?
LOL..... do not worry, I already thought of that . The 1150s were going for a price that would have turned the the position into a no credit or no debit FLY. Since I did not expect the market to fall into the profit zone of the FLY, I took the 0.90 credit and got out.