Whats important to remember when using TA is that overbought can stay overbought and oversold can stay oversold for a while before it actually turns. You can see examples on any chart you look at. If you are going to rely on TA alone, you better make sure you live to trade another day when the exception happens. What you said is true, opening call positions within 10 points of the 3 month high and put positions within 10 points of the 3 month low would have been very profitable over the past 2 years.
That's what I like to see... a little late day rally. hopefully we will get back up around 1280 relatively quickly so that I can temp the MMs again.
Right... overbought can stay that way, but with a 50 - 60 point cushion (FOTM), you would have certainly been in good shape when the market finally did turn over for that cycle. Of course, you still manage the position in the case of trouble.
To everyone who use stochastics to help them determine their entry, what parameters do you use? For example Synaptic uses 14. 6, and 6; and I use 14, 3, and 3. How about the rest of you? DAVE
DonnaV has withdrawn from this board, but she assured me that she is fine, but just too busy right now. Cody
Synaptic: I'm only doing FOTM bear calls myself because of the black swan. Based on some preliminary experience I think I can do 3 to 5% of the margin committed a month. But, need to be careful during strong up months (typically the end of the year). Donna V. legged into bear and bull calls late last year and was quite successful. So this is a possibility during those up months. One nice thing is that I haven't sweated even a drop over the current down draft. However, my time might come during those strong upmonths. But at least the market doesn't move up as strongly as it can going down.
Not to deviate from the main topic of this thread but --- Didn't Mr. Kiyosaki himself give a warning about Real Estate sometime last year?? Rising interest rates, loose loan standards (no doc loans, etc), ARM & Interest Only payments rising, federal reserve continuing to raise the prime rate and making hawkish statements (just read today May meeting minutes they were thinking about a 50 basis point crank in May!), and where I am in So.California real estate inventory has DOUBLED since beginning of the year. I don't believe Real Estate especially on the coastal regions is a good thing to get into right now. However, if you are in it for the long haul (10+ years), looking out of California, and the numbers pencil out go for it. Some food for thought Read more here: http://www.bubbletracking.blogspot.com/ http://www.thehousingbubbleblog.com/
Actually, I PMed her and I'm not so sure she is doing OK. I don't want to go into details here. I wish her the best regardless. She is taking some time off after a nasty hit. At least she has her health.