wow...just took a look at the 10day overbought/oversold oscillators:eek: we haven't seen this deep a low on NDX since 9/11 and hugh dip on NYSE to boot. It is often said that a sharp move with volatility and volume is a change in either direction or rotation. Given the economy is still quite sound with unemployment low I believe this sharp decline we see which is a panic in some markets (or sun nite) is going to indicate a change in money flow...out of international markets and commodities and back into the relative security of the US markets. The US markets could follow but later this summer or fall. Just my animal instinct
Well needed another down or flat day to get filled, spread vanished on today's surge so nothing for JUNE so far
Phil, Could you disclose what return you could realize on VIX options ? One thing was verified positively during this correction; your choice of instrument for disaster scenario protection. In fact interest rates were not helpful this time at all, whereas VIX jumped up nicely although deep correction is still far away from black swan scenario, in which VIX could possibly grow much more than this. Another issue here (which might be issue of the future) is, that monitoring market in European time zone could be very effective anti-black swan protection due to growing electronic market...
Not just yet on the bear calls. If we reach 1280 I will be selling them. I did however, convert some of my bull puts into flies at the peak this morning (offset the rest of them). Locked in a guaranteed profit, and if we settle back down around 1250 then I will make some decent money.
I wasn't quite brave enough to pull the trigger on the 1235/1240 spreads, still paper trading this month. Probably move to a small amount of real money next month. I think the pull back these last few days have really shown me how a well placed 5 point spread can work out better under pressure than a 10 point spread.
I'm always brave (translated stupid) enough to pull the trigger, but this market is showing serious lack of conviction from the bulls. Also, the credits on the put side suck, so I jumped at the chance to convert this morning. Talk about timing it right. Market started down right after I got filled. That rarely happens.