My positions: 20 SPX 1205/1215 Bull Put-- Credit $1.0 20 RUT 650/660 Bull Put-- Credit $0.95 Thinking of completing the IC with the below. 20 SPX 1330/1340 Bear Call-- Credit $0.70 20 RUT 780/790 Bear Call--Credit $0.70
I think you were spot on with your forecast of higher volatility in an earlier post - and todays price action seems to be a good reflection of that. Good for daytraders. With your several months of experience of attempting to leg into spreads for better than fair value, overall do you think that you have come out better (including the cost of any long legs that were not subsequently spreaded)? Since you have good directional instincts, it would be interesting to know how you have fared on the expectancy front...
LOL. You can always count on me to stick my neck out further than most. HAHA.. You know you might have been a bit too aggressive when Rally makes a statement like this; Don't worry too much Aardvark, just gotta roll with the punches. [edit] BTW, I think the only way to "create" positive expectancy is to accurately forecast direction/vols. You seem to be decent at it, so we'll see how it all pans out in the end.
Yeah, I think you'll both be OK by expiration if you can hold your nerve in the interim. We could throw time into the mix - but that doesn't require forecasting - it just happens...and in only one direction. Of course IV can be viewed as synthetic time. So best case scenario is to have all three: direction, IV and time all move in your favor on an existing position before adjusting into new better than fair value position. Food for thought. MoMoney.
Yes I do "believe" I have overall done better legging into spreads...but since I don't know what I would have received had I not legged in I can't do a side by side comparison. I know RD did better than I on June call spread by .10 but lets face it a nickel or dime happens to all of us depending on how friendly the MM is! Almost all months I have eventually spread with at least a small profit. Only last month did I leave legs unspread for so long I lost money (on those legs...overall I did just fine) edit geez...I do sound a bit like a hooker don't I.... :eek: but lets face it we are all prostitutes to this market
I am sticking around for the moment but i will not hold through expiration. I am closing on the first bounce. I dont like this market for bull put spreads.
Cache, we need to put our seat belts on, this may get ugly. I am also getting raped with my SOX position. Remind me to never trade that POS again LOL
Cache, we need to put our seat belts on, this may get ugly. I am also getting raped with my SOX position. Remind me to never trade that POS again LOL [/B][/QUOTE] Hey, thanx for almost talking me into the SOX trade. LOL Yeah, I'm gearing up for battle too. I'd planned on talking profits on the first good bounce. OTOH, if we don't drop I think we will be rangebound for a while. I'd toyed with the idea of converting to a b-fly. We'll see what vols are looking like and if I can convert easily. Something to think about.
Well, we all knew this was coming so i am not surprised. Though, I cant say i am a fan of a FLY adjustment with vols picking up. I am going to offset and look for another day to fight once the trading range becomes clearer in my mind By the way, I have been scalping the ES the past 2 days and it seems that 200 MA is holding so far. I see alot of buying everytime we dip down there. Sure feels like inst buying to me, but what do i know. Late day rally today looked very promising although it faded. We need to cross the highs of the last few days and we should be home free for a lil while. By Friday we shall know one way or another i think.