This market worries me a great deal. If we cant bounce off of oversold levels on no news days, we are headed for trouble. Watch the durable goods report. Good news might be taken as bad and bad news as horrible. Another 1 sigma move down isnt out of the question in my opinion.
Since I`ve been trading for living I use little different approach to S&P, which might be wrong but it works and I personally believe it`s true. I mean sentiment is primary and reports are secondary. There is no way to quantify reports yet, but through years of trading you may see that bad and good ones come in waves. Conclusion is, that bad report can`t do much. If whole sentiment is ready to go again, there will be no significant reaction. Just my 2cents - not trying to change anybody`s opinion.
For those trading the XEO: what is the next support level? Since the market is oversold- I am thinking of opening 565-560 ....... But, we may be headed further down............. Anyone- any thoughts?
ALL - Thought I'd share with each of you my June 2006 positions: 1320/1330 Bearish Call Spread @ $0.50 1195/1205 Bullish Put Spread @ $0.80 12.3% Return if options expire worthless and I don't get raped by any bearish SPX action Rookie Rich
What a nutty day:eek: I guess I will update my June position in the FWIW category or how to turn a perfectly wonderful position into a mess 5/10 BTO 1 (lot) June 1250 P debt@2.60 BTO 1 (lot) June 1245 P debt@ 2.50 had I held...woo hoo...but nooooooooo 5/11 STO 2(lots) June 1245 credit@ 4.10 (essentially creating a debt spread) and chashing half the nice gain....this was fine had I been patient...but noooooooooooo 5/15 STO 1 (lot) cr 1225/1245 Put spread for cr. 1.90...too early lets just compound this by selling another one on 5/17 STO 1 (lot) 1225/1240 cr. 1.60 I really thought I could do something creative with this mess..and wasn't too worried about the decline because I at least was long a lot of 1250's as a bit of a cushion.However when early today mkt was down I just gave up on trying to make something out of it so I STC 1 (lot) of 1250/1240 puts..cr. 2.70 what I ended up with was 2 (lots) of 1225/1245 put credit spreads for a total credit of 4.65 and anyone and his mother who wanted to take the risk could have sold that this AM!!!!! Japanese have a word for this..."me cha ku cha" sigh...so I guess right now Cache L and I are the ones with our necks out the most.... :eek: I wish I could say I learned something..the only thing I'm learning is how hard it is to create positive expectancy
One thought about today's activity...twice mkt rallied only to be sold. Could it be ppl who have lost a ton on the emerging markets/commodities are having to cash in on the US market (which has lagged) to pay off?