Rally, Nice analysis, good logic You mentioned gap risk for your ES position. Since that's traded almost 24 hours, I don't see a gap risk. Even if you hold your ES position overnight and your stop is active (1335 I think you said) you should be safe, no?
I have no problem accessing it. Maybe you want to try it again given that it was months ago that you tried. Also, make sure that you didnt have anything running in the ackground that was locked up. I had some .pdf files locking up in the background once that was slowing the TOS platform to a halt. it wasnt until I was shutting down th ePC at the end of the day that I noticed the locked up pdf files. It was back to normal after clearing up those locked up files.
With the FOMC to report on Wed. what's everyone's opinion on a Iron Condor I have open for May 1235/1245/1340/1350. I'm not concerned about the put side but the call side is what worries me. Normally when I open a IC with less than 15 days to expiration I'll wait until the underlying is 10pts from my short to adjust but with the feds news coming Wed., and the recent market momentum we could be in for a pull back or another surge, all this in a week when theta starts working for us. Anyone have any thoughts on this position. I'm thinking I'm going to see how the market reacts on Monday and if it's down look to close the call side, to play it safe.
The ES is not all that liquid after hours. Only about 20k contracts or so change hands between the time markets close and open. If some major news comes out and pushes the market higher these 20k contracts will change hands within 60 secs, it is likely that the bid will cross the ask. It could be 2 points, it could be 20 depending on the news. I've personally seen a cross of 5 points with no asks in between, so gap risk does exist. Which is why i dont consider using futures as a hedge to anything, but rather as a whole new trade with its own risk/rewards.
I think they are going with #1. However, you never know so I need to be careful with my May IC: 1245/1255/1350/1360 Rookie Rich
Shams78, Let me understand. You have a short call at 1335, May, and FOMC meeting on Wed. The market has broken to the upside out of a channel, the ema is up. And you want to know what to do. That's a tough one. :<)
>1) Fed raises the rate another quarter point and says further hikes maybe needed based on data. - Market sells off. Market sells off into the channel and breaks back out of the channel to the upside after a week.
Alas, channels are in the eye of the beholder. Behold, random channel generation for your entertainment