I think the explanation request was about the significance of comparing the 9.3% number and the 16% probability of expiring in the money.....
LOL, thanks Ryan! but as per Phil, it was the "hmmmmm" I was more curious about. To be honest, the curiosity has now faded LOL so this thread is luckily spared more meaningless drivel [EDIT: from me of course!]
Notwithstanding hedges/adjustments and assuming exit at max risk, you risk $100 to make $9 and roughly every 6th time you lose it all. Just dont like the expectancy of that strategy is all i am saying. Dont want to start a discussion on this.
Well every FOTM spread will pretty much have those kind of parameters but it is not a straightforward risk/reward. Probability of success and the fact that a position will never be allowed to go to full max risk changes the picuture a bit.
Coach: Let me be the first to congradulate you on the success of this thread with 1000 pages to date. I am still finding tidbits of information I missed on my second reading through the thread. Thanks go out to Coach and all who continue to contribute to the knowledge base of this thread. Now that we are talking about podcasting can a movie on the big screen with all supporting cast be far behind. I know who Coach's first choice would be for the role of leading lady.
Actually my people are talking to J Alba's people about a movie treatment on SPX Spreads...unfortunately the people in my head keep getting rejection letters from JA's people in my head. Congrats on reading 1000 pages and Maverick's rants buried throughout lol.... Hopefully the JA pics kept you interested
Well i've seen your spreads and i've noticed you usually stay around .09-.1 on the delta side which is in par with your r/r. .16 is pushing it in my opinion.