I agree with your reasoning, simply disagree on magnitude. A 30-print hasn't been seen since the 9/11 aftermath. You'd have to assume that your bull spread would be trading near failure with a VIX at 30. Sure, we can rally 100 points on SPX from here, but you'd be long gone on this vertical. Not to belabor it, but I'd go with ITM VIX calls assuming that a majority of the VIX call debit would be recoverable. The call backspread is sound, but you'd tend to get nervous holding those. Otherwise VBI futures, but there is a logistical issue with that contract.
I got filled on the 50 May 15 VIX at an average price of $0.62. I changed the order and they hit 10 at $0.50 and then got the rest at $0.65.
The carry on the Nov is roughly 3 handles. Not a concern as the Nov SPX vol strip reflects this premium. The back month premium in the vol-strip reflects time vol; risks of chronic/acute event-risk. It's linear+parallel w.r.t. premiums.
Added to my 1215/1225 Put Spread today because on an up day the puts were selling for phat premiums and added another 100 spreads. We may dip again in the future for better entry but decided to grab them today. Also added more VIX hedges at 15 strike for May. (SEARCH TERM: APRIL/MAY2006) REVISED POSITIONS: MAY POSITIONS Sold another 100 spreads @ $0.60. New total spreads and average fill as follows: -500 SPX MAY 1215/1225 Put Spreads @ $0.40 Credit = $20,000 Risk = $480,000 Return = 4.16% Long 100 VIX MAY 20.00 Calls @ $0.20 Cost = $2,000 Long 50 VIX MAY 15.00 Calls @ $0.62 avg fill Avg. Cost = $3,100 PUT SPREAD PARTIAL HEDGE + 100 SPY APR 126/125 Put Spreads @ $0.10 Net Debit = $1,000 APRIL POSITIONS SPX CALL DIAGONAL SPREAD - 8 SPX APR 1340 Calls @ $4.70 + 10 SPX MAY 1375 Calls @ $3.10 Net Credit = $660 Unrealized profit of about $1,000 for now but gonna let it run and make more off of it if I can. SPX BULL PUT SPREAD (CLOSED) - 350 SPX APR 1225/1235 Put Spreads @ $0.35 Net Credit = $12,250 Closed for net credit of $0.15 or $5,250
Jim I subscribe to "RealMoney.com" to get Helen's blog also Steve Smith on options has good blog..i don't subscribe to any special newsletter or anything else at real money. go to coach's group on yahoo...optiontradingcoach (did I mangle that and the yahoo optionclub moderated by Chris Smith...FxFade is Kent and he has given some free info on how to do DiNapoli levels etc. Quite a few very good option traders on both forums , highly recommend you join them. not as active as elite trader but very specifically option oriented.
I used to have a RM subscription a couple of years ago and i remember Helen being pretty good at calling near tops/bottoms using her overbought/oversold indicators. But after advancing my knowledge in technical analysis i have found my own style that works just as well. If we close near 1290, i'd call this a nice reversal day and would think we may stay in this channel, but if we get a red close then i'd tend to think we will continue our down path. coach, nice place to add put spreads, after the rally of the morning lows, you should've bought all of them here
I was able to grab some May 1210/1220 puts today for .60, I just had to rub it in a little Coach. ryan