I think you mean $54? ..and no i dont expect it to hold simply because of where the nasdaq is at. I expect next week to be an ugly week for tech, and i dont think MRVL will go against the market and rally. As a matter of fact i am waiting to sell the 50/52.5 put spread when/if MRVL tests the 200 MA and reverses, which now sits at $51.71
Webair on calendar spreads...abt 60 min for those interested(free) http://www.chartbender.com/cbwebinar20060330.aspx
I put the link to it into the calendar thread. I think for those of us that are fairly new was quite helpful. I don't subscribe to chartbenders and I'm sure it may be more useful to you if you do. What I'm learning about calendar's is each one presents different opportunity and challenges. There is no shortcut for experience
I'd like to find a analytical way to analyze whether I should open a 5pt spread or a 10pt spread. Right now I find a short strike that I would feel comfortable with using prob analysis, and then compare the ROI on margin of both a 5pt and 10pt spread. What I don't compare though now is what would happen if the index came rushing onto my short strike, how much would I lose on the 5pt spread vs. 10pt spread. Intuition tells me that the delta of the 10pt long would be lower than the 5pt long, so I would lose LESS selling a 5pt spread. I guess my question is how do I analyze not only the ROI between a 5pt and 10pt spread when selling them, but how do I analyze which would do more damage to my account when I would need to close or roll them. Then combining both the open and close ROI determine the best spread to trade? Thanks sd
Generally speaking, it has been my experience that the ROI on shorter spreads (5 pts on SPX, 1 pt on SPY/IWM/DIA) to be better than the larger spreads.