Are you saying you had to go .50 off the mid or was $9.50 just your goal? How far off the mid did you have to go to get filled? ryan
Well the spread was $7.00/$11.00 after jumping around looking at different strikes for rolling into FLYs and stuff so I put the order at the mid-point at $9.00 and got filled. $9.50 or so was my goal in legging into an IRON FLY selling the 1195/1205 call spread but no dice. So in hindsight I got a great fill.
The weekly chart will give you some great clues about where the market is likely to go based on cycle analysis....
LMAO. EGARCH mumbo jumbo. Don't follow gold but on equity indices GARCH et al have been shown by some to fare little better on out of sample performance vs. IV and historical where volatility forecasting is concerned and therefore not worth my time IMO, though do have tools available e.g. Hoadley to leverage if required
The BOX max value is the difference between the strikes. As for the BOX v. Rolling, it is technically the same thing since the BOX in effect closes the put spread. I was explaining to someone else that I was comparing costs of rolling into an IRON FLY or a BOX v. closing the spread and my calculations were that if I could get the mid-point of the call spread it was a slight improvement over closing the spread. So my net effect is to close the 1185/1195 and roll to the 1165/1180. I chose to do it the BOX way partially as a test of the method and also since at the time I saw a slight advantage of the BOX method. Of course an hour after doing so the 1185/1195 put spread quotes changed and maybe I could have gotten out at better than $1.00 which would have led to the same $9,000 loss on closing the put spread. As I said before, I was working this out all on paper and after a while I decided the only way to test this was to do it and add the BOX. It may be the wrong move or not but I wanted to put real money into it and see the results. If I am wrong, I really only lost slightly more on the BOX v. rolling down and the fact that the net position is still a positive credit above 1180 means I am earning $ for the lesson. I invite you to follow along and if it was a bad idea, you learned from my trade and if it was a decent idea, then you can work out the details on paper too and run your own analysis. I am certainly open to criticism but sometimes I need to put the money where my mouth is. Just remember that the BOX is the same as closing the put spread so one has to compare closing the spread outright v. rolling into the BOX. My drunken eyes were seeing an advantage in the BOX at the time . I know some of you might be scratching your heads as to why I did this so I hope i have explained it from my perspective. I had to place the trade to see the real mechanics and as I have said, I actually saw a better lower loss from the BOX than I did from closing the spread.
Wanted to point out that ET's Chit Chat forum is highly entertaining if you haven't checked it out yet.... it's kinda like the Jerry Springer show where you laugh AT the people on stage. Chit Chat forum really demonstrates the penetration of AOL dial-up into trailer park communities all across the deep South. Check it out when you need a laugh...
Donna alert! sold 25 Mar 1190P (half my allotment) decided prudence better part of valor as I'm concerned that Feb 1225 could be in danger next week and if we go down some more which my bones and charts seems to suggest I can use those contracts to finance my Feb cover. but what the heck do I know I'm JUST a housewife/retail trader edit: price I got was 3.60 ....10cents off the mid to the MM