S&P 500 futures are up pretty good (5.50) with 30 minutes to go to the opening bell. This would make me think the SET today will be up a pretty good amount but we will see. ryan
To revisit a recent topic: The ATM straddle for Jan is about 33. So does this mean the MMs are expecting the SPX to be between about 1240 and 1305 at Jan expiration? I am looking for Jan positions and this information on the ATM straddle is new to me and I'm trying to see how best to use it. From what others have posted, this is to be used as a rough tool to get a gauge of the market. Right now I am looking at put spreads only. I am looking at 1195/1205 or possibly 1200/1210. I tried shaving .05 off the mid of the 11/95/1205 but couldn't get filled. Premium isn't where I like it to be yet today but it is still early. ryan
My view is that the MMs are pricing the straddle with an expectation that based on today's volatility estimates, the SPX will trade in a range approximately of 33 points aboe and below the ATM strike. Look at it is a sort of estimate of the distribution of index prices from now until expiration. However the market maker has the luxury of revising those figures minute by minute as the index moves so it could get bigger or smaller. Therefore, you use it as a general guide but do not set up any short strikes close to the outer edges of that straddle. One suggestion I made is to doible the value of the straddle as a quick rule to find a starting point for stirke selection. So if the straddle is $33, start looking at strikes 66 points OTM and then analyze the risk reward of the premium and also use TA to analyze the index.
Funny thing, the 66 points hits about where my other criteria are pointing me. Probably a bad sign, need to drop my short put strike another 5-10
What strike do you choose 1275 or 1270? At what specific time do you take this measure? Do you take the PUT and the Call and then add it up? (long Straddle definition) Please answer.
Don't only count on this when selecting your short strikes . You need to consider Fibonacci Retracement/Expansion, Moving average 50,20 200. Price movement of the last month and also market direction. MHO
I use several criteria to select a strike to be short at. I generally like to look at support/resistance areas, trend lines, +/- 6% of current SPX level and delta of 10-12 and see what the premiums are like at those various strikes and then make my decision from there. Now I will also add the ATM straddle x 2. ryan
The "point to double" on the atm straddle is good to know if you were to consider buying the atm straddle as an early-hedge into the wing strikes. At least the hedge would score a double.