1285 by expiration is the target I received today from some analysis I buy which is excellent. SOX has been leading and is up 6 handles today. Looking for a NH on SOX and SPX next week. Nikkei getting near high of the range with today's reversal. I'd be very careful with short call spreads.
That is certainly aggressive given the current market conditions, i.e. 25 point jump in one week. Are they factoring in something or just making a technical protection? I could see end of December at 1285 once this current ennui is squeezed out.
I take some gamma-trades based upon the analysis, but I agree that it sounds optimistic, and is 2sigmas. They've been very accurate on past-expirations, but this is the largest weekly-gain projection I've seen. A break of 125950 on SPX cash would be very bullish in their opinion. I tend to agree with that figure.
Risk, I am hearing the same thing, but not for technical reasons. The Iraqi elections are on Dec 15th, the day before settlement! I am hearing 1285 to 1295. BTW, I use a broker on the floor with Man and Goldman was aggressively buying the 1280/1290 verticals.
I forgot about the Iraqi elections. Thanks for reminding me. I always forget the big macro stuff on the calendar. I heard the same about the GS vert as well. Something like 20k cars, but much larger in SP futures.
Makes me happier I took off my call spreads some time ago lol Would the elections be so different from the last elections to warrant a jump in our markets you think? Especially with the random acts of violence that will accompany the election news. The pros can be wrong but I am not seeing the big catalyst for such a push in one week, unless they will work to move the market higher to support those positions . Apart from their comments, do you guys see anything to suport this push to 1285 and higher by next week. I can understand possibly by the end of the month...
The analysis I buy is from guys that run an iteration of the old Tudor "Ranger" product. It's an old-school NN and query engine. It's been uncanningly-accurate, but I don't have the stones to play it large. I simply massage deltas in line with the output. FWIW, I've covered my short deltas. Flat-delta with some upside lotto tickets.
I could certainly see adding some positive market deltas for lotto tickets, but GS taking large positions in 1280/1290 verts? Not saying it is impossible but current news and expectations do not seem to warrant it lol. But hey they take positions like this all year long and hit and miss.
Riskarb, Thank you for your contribution to this board -- they are quite educational (and thanks Coach for occasionally translating riskarb-speak for the rest of us). Wondering if you can share the source of the analyis you buy in case we want to subscribe too? Also, did this analysis predict a positive comment from the Fed? That's important if we're going to hit 1285.
Riskarb, When we were in high school, we learned Vipassana mediatation. 80% of Thai school teach that.