I just checked front-month (dec) ATM vol and it is indeed 7.5%. How do you know that is 40% below model fair value (which puts fair value at 12.5)?
Coach, Do you see yourself opening only your Jan CALL spreads early next week with the market in the 1270 range ? If so, when would you consider opening your JAN PUT side ... only on a small to medium size pullback ? Also, do you ever look at OEX resistance points and then extrapolate to an equivalent SPX point (for reference) when trading the SPX ?
Some confusion, I intend to open only PUTS for JAN position (would do it today if we get a dip). I am looking to add my JAN puts anyday now. For JAN I will go as far deep OTM as I can and just ride it. I posted earlier that I like to start the year slow and get some hits/wins under my belt and build up profits. I do look for equivalent points on SPX/XEO charts when getting into XEO positions for some guidance. XEO and SPX are highly correlated but there is some difference since the magnitidue of moves are not the same After examining an XEO chart for possible strikes I do then compare to SPX charts to see what the quasi-equivalent strikes would be.
I just run everyting thing through a pricing model. I'm sure ToS has something like that with their software. Today I notice that the SPX front month calls are going off at an average of about 12.1% I.V. That's what you call free overnight money. BTW: I won't be here to watch these Vols today as Mt Rose opens today. YeeHaw!!!!!
rdemyan, I'm not answering for coach but whatever you end up doing should be based on your belief of what the market will do. In the next weeks/months do you think the market will go up or down or sideways? Are vols low or high compared to where they will be in the next few weeks/months? My 2 cents is that it's very difficult to adjust a trade or even craft an initial trade without some initial beliefs of where the market is heading.
Coach, With the market so extended, possibly close to the peak of it's cycle, and likely to reverse on Jan 1 (see last years chart after a bull Dec), why would you put on a put spread now?
Putting it on now gives me a nice premium and I am looking at deep OTM levels so as to still be outside any possible reversals. By Jan 1, I would lose another 28 days of theta so I am looking to grab it now since my expectation is that by Jan expectation the market will not be in a total collapse. I see the market holding up overall for the month of DEC and being up to slightly flat for JAN.