Extractor, welcome to the thread. You say you've been doing this a long time. I, for one, would appreciate it if you would share some of the trades that you are putting on and your general strategy. We're not interested in the number of contracts or amount of money you have committed, just the strikes and what your overall strategy is. Post trades only if you want to as no one here is pressured to do so. Thanks and I looked forward to reading your posts.
Coach, TOS support told me they'd be adding this. The client tells the software which adjustments to track for which positions. You may want to check with them since I got this information rather informally.
Rolling Up 1270/1280 to where? If you draw a trendline starting at the highs of Jan 2004, it touches the highs in Feb 2004, Mar 2004, Jan 2005, Mar 2005 and intersects DEC expiration at 1282. This is the "worst case" trendline I've been able to come up with. If I were to roll up, it'd be to at least 1290/1300 but more likely 1300/1310.
Rdemyan, I dont want to get off topic too much, but started out in options , trading covered calls on stocks I had accumulated in a good siize IRA. Selling calls worked well for me in the 90's, since I didnt have a love affair with any of the stocks I owned. As you know there is little downside protection for this selling strategy, so it was no longer profitable durring the decline of the bubble.Also selling options was not allowed by the old line brokerage houses. When discount brokerage houses became an entity , and rules changed, I started selling deep out of the money credit spreads on equities. Found this to be too volatile and got whipsawed around a great deal. Too much reaction to news events and anylysts. I then switched to selling credit spreads on SPX using some historical guidelines that I have mentioned. Also sold credit spreads and Iron condors on the XEO, using 50 wide between the sold options. I do 10 lots , but still didnt like risk to reward ratio, but I was profitable, although nothing to rave about. To reduce margin and increase chance of larger reward, I began entering with a butterfly, 10 points between the buys and sells, and hoped not to adjust if possible, but with close to a 3 to 1 risk to reward , I could easily convert to a condor , either up or down , with now a 1 to 1 risk to reward . Didnt have to tie up the huge amounts of margin and it works pretty well but alot of time having to take it off in expiration week, when it gets pretty dicey. I now trade a short term proprietary system on the SPY a couple of times a week for smaller gains , but at the end of the month , a nice tidy sum, and on most days I go home flat with no position too worry about. If I see good premium in the SPX and its trending up , I still do bull put spreads , or if it is trending down bear calls , but I am more likely to take my profit as quickly as I can, as theta allows. If I sold for .50 and it quickly loses premium to .25, I'm gone. I love strong trends. I keep it pretty simple, using some very simple TA, and news events to help monitor the markets. However my expectations are low. I am happy to supplement my income by $2000 a month. Not trying to hit the jack pot.
well...I've been still chewing on the set. In the last 11 months of this year set has been higher than the close of the day(thurs) 10 out of 11 months. Only April set was lower. Why? any clue? Are MM and other traders more pessimistic of how the underlying are doing? Now I will be more willing to risk a put short than a call short.
Careful, Donna. That kind of linear thinking can cost you a ton of money. If a coin was flipped 11 times and 10 heads came up, the chance of a head on the next flip is still 50%. Maybe there is something going on, but maybe it was just a coincidence. You should probably continue to exercise due care on both sides of the position. By the way, does anybody know where I can get historical SET values? I can't find them on the CBOE site and Yahoo doesn't have the history for it.
while I may not disagree it still is quite interesting and I don't think in any way a mathmatical or statistical probability that 10 our of 11 times the set has been higher this year...thats just fact!
I guess my point is that I do NOT think there is a (an) equivalency...in other words there may be no logical or mathmatical reason why the set is higher vs lower than the last quote...is there another reason?
The monthly set is in data....(by year)is that what you are looking for? By the way, does anybody know where I can get historical SET values? I can't find them on the CBOE site and Yahoo doesn't have the history for it. [/B][/QUOTE]
I am also a user of TOS and what you stated is correct. The risk graph shows only current positions. Closed positions are not included. qamhwr