Nice list... It's been nice and quiet since 2001. I think other strategies would prevail if we saw that kind of volatility again.
No, I didn't calc that. Should be easy enough to throw into Excel and drag out the Mean, Standard Devs, etc. If you are an Excel weenie...
Very true. And another take away from the data, is the idea that if you fell asleep at the wheel and the SPX managed to hit Phil's long strike (for example on the bear call spreads) which may only be about 7-9% from the initiation point, a real chunky loss of about 24 times the credit received may result in Smackdown City. Phil is very experienced and knows how to mitigate and the strategy has been great for the last couple years, but anybody trying this may want to think about another strat, like Sam mentions, if we return to that kind of volatility. Regards. C
Now I am not sure if I made it clear in this thread so I will cover it it since the question comes up. This is not an IRON CONDOR thread it is a credit spread thread. I am doing the ICs now because the market is pretty quiet. But I also have sold single call or single put spreads as well. If the market begins to trend again, as I expect in the fall, then I will simply take the opposite side of the trend only and pass on the Iron Condors. As I have said, the key to credit spreads on the SPX is risk management. Falling asleep at the wheel is just not an option lol. It would not be prudent to do ICs when the market is showing signs of wild price swings. I think I am good until August/September and then will go back to sticking with the put sides since the IV skew lets me move way out of the money. So my advice for those playing along on the home game, remember that the focus here is selling credit spreads so you have to be willing to stick with one side if the market starts showing signs of a trend other than sideways. JUNE was an amazingly flat month. It opened at 1191 and closed at 1191.... pretty wild huh? July will exhibit the same patterns as well and so will most of August. September may usher in some fall rallies so you will see me most likely move to the put side deep OTM. Choad is reinforcing the question of risk management and it cannot be highlighted, repeated, covered, detailed or explained enough so I thank you Choad for the comments and the data field. If we return to "that kind of volatility" then it will become more necessary for you to be more selective which spreads you choose and which strikes. Iron Condors will become less attractive naturally. Trading is an active sport not a passive activity. When the market changes you must adpat as well and never fall in love with any strategy. I am in love with ICs this summer but will dump her the minute the market shows more life. It is also the reason I do not put 100% of my capital in this one strategy or even selling spreads. Remember that Diversification is not just what you call it when Diversi takes some days off (Diversi-vacation.. I know bad joke). So stick with me as long as you can and we will see hoe we will adapt once the market shows an indication to not sit still. Should be a fun and profitable ride. If my thread is doen nothing more than make you think more about risk management, then it is more useful than you can imagine. Phil
Coach, having said risk management involves not falling asleep at the wheel.. As you suggested: I bought back my 1540 / 1550 calls on monday for a $4 loss and rolled up to the 1560 / 1575 calls for a 1.3 credit. The 1560 / 1575 currently have a $4 credit What do I do now? Thanks, esu2
Market is losing steam today as it has tried to flirt with resistance a few times today. You have 5 points of room and 2 days to expiration. Unfortunately I do not know what 5 points means on the NDX and if that is an easy move for a day or not. Therefore my advice can only be general. If you have no faith that the market will subside today and have at least a down day before Thursday then you can roll up again to give you enough room for the next two days or simply cut everything now and put July in the books and focus on August. A monthly loss is not a death. Over a year of trading you can overcome losses if you keep them manageable and small. Since I am not aware of your positions sizes or capital at risk it is hard for me to tell you exactly how much is too much. If the losses seems to be growing beyond your comfort level then cut and run. If you feel that the index will hold as it has the past 3 hours or so then you can work on an exit plan for tomorrow and on an up day roll or cut and on a down day let time decay work for you. It aint easy but it is nothing personal. A small loss is better than a large one. Phil
I was placed a buy order with IB on NDX aug 1525 put bid 10 size 400 ask 11 size 287 I submitted the limit order for one at 10.5 as soon as I submitted the order, bid and ask changed to the following.. bid 10.5 ask 12 This happened 2 more times... everytime I submitted a limit order between the bid and ask.. the ask would move up and the bid became my limit price. Anyone can explain how this works? Is there one market maker that controls all this?