Okay, here's some more results from the data. These results I would venture to say are 'hard' in the sense that they are not subject to any bias or interpretation on my part (other than the ranges I selected to look at). 1) 110 expiration-to-expiration periods are included starting from October 20, 1995 through December 17, 2004 2) Of those 110 periods, the SPX saw an increase in 61 of those periods (that is, the SPX was higher at the end of the period than at the beginning of the period). A decrease occurred in 49 of those periods. 3) The largest increase in the SPX during a single period was 11.15% from 9/21/2001 to 10/19/2001. The average VIX during this period was 33.78. 5) The largest decrease in the SPX during a single period was 16.88% from 8/17/2001 to 9/21/2001 (the period preceding the largest increase!). The average VIX during this period was 28.94. 6) For the 61 periods that the SPX was higher at the end of the period than at the beginning, here are approximate ranges: 8 times the %change in the SPX was less than 1% 6 times the %change in the SPX was between 1% and 2% 26 times the %change in the SPX was between 2% and 5% 21 times the %change in the SPX was greater than 5% 7) For the 49 periods that the SPX was lower at the end of the period than at the beginning, here are approximate ranges: 13 times the %change in the SPX was less than 1% 11 times the %change in the SPX was between 1% and 2% 13 times the %change in the SPX was between 2% and 5% 12 times the %change in the SPX was greater than 5% Wow! 1/3rd of the time that the SPX increased it increased by 5% or more.
Okay, here's some more: A) For the 61 periods that the SPX was higher at the end of the period than at the beginning, here are approximate ranges: 8 times the %change in the SPX was less than 1%. For these periods: AVE VIX = 21.63 MEDIAN VIX = 21.97 STDEV IN VIX = 3.98 6 times the %change in the SPX was between 1% and 2% For these periods: AVE VIX = 21.80 MEDIAN VIX = 21.59 STDEV IN VIX = 2.80 26 times the %change in the SPX was between 2% and 5% For these periods: AVE VIX = 21.31 MEDIAN VIX = 19.15 STDEV IN VIX = 7.31 21 times the %change in the SPX was greater than 5% For these periods: AVE VIX = 23.15 MEDIAN VIX = 20.89 STDEV IN VIX = 6.21 B) For the 49 periods that the SPX was lower at the end of the period than at the beginning, here are approximate ranges: 13 times the %change in the SPX was less than 1% For these periods: AVE VIX = 20.68 MEDIAN VIX = 21.45 STDEV IN VIX = 4.30 11 times the %change in the SPX was between 1% and 2% For these periods: AVE VIX = 21.02 MEDIAN VIX = 21.37 STDEV IN VIX = 4.60 13 times the %change in the SPX was between 2% and 5% For these periods: AVE VIX = 21.24 MEDIAN VIX = 21.84 STDEV IN VIX = 3.42 12 times the %change in the SPX was greater than 5% For these periods: AVE VIX = 28.06 MEDIAN VIX = 27.72 STDEV IN VIX = 5.14
Would like to hear people's thoughts about the following potential hedge to an 1140/1130 spread 112S/114B/115S SPY fly. Debit 0.10. Not doing 2 points to upside due significant chance of 1160 being touched. Felt 1 point brought in enough. Thoughts???? Would you go 2 points on upside. Good enough hedge? What alternative would you suggest.
I'm confused... you're short the put fly? You're short the 115p, long 2*114p and short the 112p? Generally-speaking, flies make for poor-hedges. Certainly a long-otm-fly is better than nothing, but they're not very sensitive to gamma. The gamma modality can invert twice from its initial position, but hovers around flatline most of the time. At the body the gamma peaks, and is typically the time to get out of the position. The good news is you're long gamma initially for a very small debit. It's not blow-out insurance, but should earn a bit at the body strike, but they're short vega as well, and in a ramp in volatility they go to absolute shite. Best to widen your fly and pay a larger debit. Stick with symmetry of strikes. It's a 4-way, so you're selling edge on 4 options. Frankly, long otm put time spreads are a better alternative. At least your mitigating your short vega in your credit spread with the +ve of the long calendar.
First question is why looking to hedge the spread when it is 40+ points OTM as of now? The butterfly could certainly be a home run kind of trade in case of a large drop but like riskarb I am confused as to how you opened the FLY. Also this is a lopsided FLY.
Thanks coach for sharing this strategy. Just posting results for Oct. as you requested. xeo iron condor established on different dates. 565/575 C : .90credit 545/535 P : .50 credit Rolled down to 540/530 using a condor for .90 debit 545 B 540 S 535 S 530 B Return for Oct. is 5% (not counting commissions). 3.7% with comm.
According to Yahoo Finance, SPX closed at 1177.80. Since the SET value was at 1183.79, someone who was short 1180 call, would have been assigned? Is a difference of 6 points between the SET and the closing price normal for the SPX?? Daytrader85
$6.00 is probably average. Cody Many times it is within a few dollars, but every now and again it is more than $10.00 difference.