Yes, I am referring to the short strike. People here do 5, 10 or 15-point strike spreads so I was just focusing on the strike that I was interested in for the short part of the spread. Phil
There doesn't seem to be any premium around that range. So.... what about December? I know you generally look at 45 days or less to expiration, but if I counted correctly we're at just under 8 weeks to Dec expiration (56 days). I'm thinking, for bear calls only to look at December and for bull puts to focus on November. Unfortunate part is that a Dec bear call won't match up with a Nov bull put as an IC.
true the calls are pretty light for now. I am seeing better premium on the put side even going down to 1100. I think for now I will just focus on the deep OTM puts and leave the calls for now unless we get some strong rally in the next week or so. Phil
This is nothing to do with daytrading. I am not a daytrader. My point is that if an index can jump 25 points in one day, and an iron condor is 100 points wide, do you see an issue there? Remember, you want your condor/spread to be around 1.5 to 2 SDs OTM...
Andy: How are you calculating the SD. Can you give a concrete example based on the current SPX price of about 1180. Thanks.
Yes, I noticed there is no credit for NOV in the 1270 area. Another options may be t choose a lower strike with a much smaller position.... or just wait. Also, you'll pay double the margin if you choose spreads in two different months.
FWIW, I calculated SDs based on how many trading days left to expiration, find the average percentage move for that time period, find the SD of the data which produced that average for that time period, add and/or subtract 1,2,3,4,etc SDs from that average and apply it to the current price. All in percentage terms of course so it can be applied to the current price. I use daily data back to 1/1/1990. I also calc out the max percent move up and down for a certain number of trading days. The actual "bell" curve for the data is taller and narrower, but with fatter longer tails, than the standard bell curve so the results are inherently more conservative, except for the black swan events of course.
Hi Coach Phil, I finally got a hold of your book. To my surprise, I actually found it in my college (UIC) library. I was reading the first part of the book and you said how to find which options were cheap and expensive by looking at current IV's and comparing them that particular stock or strike's IV range. Is there anyway I could get old IV's, to see what the range was, or do I just have to note it down on my own and work from that?? I hope my question makes sense. Let me know if it doesn't. Thanks. Daytrader85
See my prior post on 10/20/05 on page 225 where I posted a spreadsheet with the average (and mean) VIX for the past 9 to 10 years for the SPX. Maybe you'll find this of use as apparantly know one else does.