An interesting observation on my calendar -- my Mar/Mar5 (quarterly) 144 SPY calendar just yawned. Virtually no change, with the move up in the VIX.
Yes, the ol' sphincter relaxation. Why would you worry about spooking the market if you opened a bearish (call spreads?) position? AZD
That's volatility for you. For those who sold it - it seems that they are doing well. At least for now. AZD
the worry about spooking is because of my previous put spreads that went from being 80 OTM to 20 OTM in one day and no way to exit @ a sane price.
I was just teasing RM, but thanks for the compliments. He and I have many similarities and it's nice to find people who agree with my point of view sometimes. Anyway, best of luck to you.
Lately (today included) the spoos have been trading in very predictable patterns. Yesterday was unexpected but it was much more likely to see a 50pt drop than a 50pt rise. Vols were so low that I couldn't convince myself to sell calls. I bought puts into that and was long vols. Gonna be really hard for spoos to get back above that lower trend line now. A quick run up will find very heavy resistance at 1440, but it is unlikely that we'll see those heights anytime soon. Resistance also at 1410 and 1430. A close above 1410 today might mean that we see 1430 briefly before we continue down toward 1375 over the next couple months. Personally I wasn't counting on the big drop until end of APR so I still expect this to get bought back up a bit. Vols are now high enough to start considering -gamma again. Any rally toward 1430 I think is a prime candidate for a put diagonal. 2 cents..
As it played out for the remainder of the day it looked like 1407 was the hangup in both directions. Resistance still at 1410 and without any upside catalyst I'm still seeing a drop tomorrow. We'll see if my new crystal ball is right.