Get out with your profits now, how many months of a strong uptrend do you need to be convinced the market nas legs like a centipede. I got caught at the end of Sep with my diagonal and I stayed out of the way ever since. certainly was the right call lol...
No, if I added a call partial hedge then you would bet the farm and go short and make a ton of money. I am just staying out of the way of the freight train. In fact I bought me a few tickets with long ES and EW bull call spreads
This market is event driven. It took off today after weak inflation implications of a weak producer price report (PPI) and a FED official making statements implying inflation looks tame. There is another report tomorrow and the rest of the week that could reinforce this trend or turn it. But this just confirms to me that there is a hell of a lot of sidelined cash and buying pressure locked and loaded and ready to squeeze on any excuse to cap the shorts/bears... Personally I hate SET weeks since it always seems to hinge on important meetings that week and then we have the mysterious synthetic open where the settlement druids spin their magic to screw as many people gambling on SET as they can with a counter market motion spike. It never seems to fail... Wed. November 15 10:30 Crude Inventories 11/10 Wed. November 15 02:00 FOMC Minutes 10/25 Thu. November 16 12:00 Philadelphia Fed Index Nov Thu. November 16 09:15 Industrial Production Oct Thu. November 16 09:15 Capacity Utilization Oct Thu. November 16 08:30 Jobless Claims (Initial) 11/11 Thu. November 16 08:30 Core Consumer Price Index (CPI) Oct Thu. November 16 Consumer Price Index (CPI) Oct Fri. November 17 08:30 Building Permits Oct Fri. November 17 08:30 Housing Starts Oct TS
no it was an all or nothing position. When the market hit 1362 the bid ask spread on the SPX was bending me over so I never got filled on my limit order. So since the reward was greater than the risk I just let it go. I will close it out before thursday close so I do not have to deal with SET/assignment.
Seems to me there is a long for every short and on balance, no one gets screwed. As an aside, don't you think that people 'gambling on SET' deserve to get screwed? Mark
Don't you think that traders deserve to get a realistic price that bears some continuity to the prior day's close or resembles the direction and magnitude of SPX at 9:30 EST?. As for me I think that traders should have an expectation of an opening price that resembles the real market(s) open(s) at 9:30 EST (or prior day's close at 4:30 EST if a west coast market) and have confidence that: 1) No market maker or hedge fund or well capitalized entity is manipulating the thinly traded pre-market(s) trading; or 2) is maximizing the MM trading book profit by counting the final number of open contract positions and moving SET unnaturally to offset book imbalances to result in no specialist net losses. Admittedly this internal area of the market is fuzzy to me though. Who knows what is going on "in committee" and what the real market driven bid/ask prices are at the open? It seems to me SPX should be handled like OIX and it should be defined as the final closing Wall Street bell price with a PM settlement on the Friday before expiration. Do you know why SPX settles this way? The real question I have is why have a synthetic open at all if it can open the system up to being gamed? Bottom line: I guess you can tell I don't trust the legitimacy of SET formation free of manipulation since the gap up/downs are often 180 degrees out of phase with the SPX open at 9:30 EST. TS
What's wrong with that? It more a matter of principal. When hanging tough on a late breaking market major move against you in the last few hours of trading I just hate the idea of paying yet another friggin commission to close out when I am 7 points oom near the bell & I have to flip a coin on closing due to the distant chance of a wild SET gap into the money on Friday's SET. There does not seem to be any intelligent way to predict or estimate by market behavior what we are going to be in for at the open. Theoretically it could be a 100 point gap up or anything and thats just nuts. It makes an expiration play on SPX extremely risky for anyone and that is when we tight premium players bank our small wins so closing costs are important. All we have are the average SET historical data with fairly large sigmas to go on. I'd play OIX more often except the premiums are so low... TS
With the market closing above 1390 I chose to get out of the way of this train (still kicking myself for not opening the CTM put credit spread last week). I put in some aftermarket orders and got filled pretty quickly. I saw too many ways for me to lose my profit after such a good run this month. Better to have a small profit than let my winner turn into a loser at this point. I'm looking at an SPX and a RUT diagonal for Dec/Jan: SPX Dec 1325/ Jan 1350 puts SPX Dec 1450/Jan 1475 calls possible Dec 1390/Jan 1380 put tent pole RUT Dec 750/Jan 730 puts RUT Dec 830/Jan 850 calls possible Dec 770/Jan 750 put tent pole