attn skdoyle1: I am considering a job opportunity with more daytime flexibility. However, it will require moderate travel overnight 6-10 nights per month. about a week ago you mentioned wireless alerts. would you be so kind as to share your service provider, opinions, knowledge, etc. thanks. newbie.
Well the market keeps dipping little by little and some buyers jump in to bring it slightly back but stil flirting around a support area at 1180 on the SPX and 550 on the OEX/XEO. With an XEO position of 530/545 the 550 level has raised my first warning signal. I do not use the same 10/15 points as with the SPX because the XEO is on a much smaller scale so 5 points is more of my cushion. To provide a partial hedge to my XEO 530/545 put spread I added the following BUTTERFLY using the OEX (one advantage of using XEO is being able to use OEX to hedge): Long 10 550/540/530 OEX FLY @ $1.90 or $1,900. This way I have some profit below 548.10 and more if it moves towards 545. THis should help me if I need to roll down the 545 to 540 for more room over the next week. Since I brought in a lot of prmeium selling the 565/580 XEO spread, I can spend some of it for a partial hedge and the FLY gave me the best target zone and cost after looking at everything else. Phil
Hi Coach, Thanks for your selfless postings! Will you please share your philosophy on hedging vs adjusting credit spreads when the underlying moves against you? From your comments, it looks like you: 1. Identify a "mental trigger" for the underlying, 2. Hedge sometimes when the underlying hits the trigger, and 3. Adjust if the underlying breaks down through your trigger toward your short. I just got KILLED in this down trend and need help improving my risk management approach. Thanks, modegolf
Phil, I'm beginning to think it is inevitable that the 1160/1170 will have to be adjusted. Here are 3 possibilities for rolling down (buying condor to close 1160/1170 and opening a new spread): 1) Buy 1150/1160/1160/1170 -- $0.75 debit 2) Buy 1140/1150/1160/1170 -- $1.40 debit 3) Buy 1130/1140/1160/1170 -- $1.85 debit Took a stab here, would love to hear your plans for the 1160/1170 culprit...
Mine is worse, it is 1165/1175. If 1180 support does not hold then I will have to make an adjustment. Same with my 530/545 XEO spread. I have been watching the different strikes and will see what happens in the pre-market. I will look things over and let you know what I am considering. Phil
My first instinct is to hedge first. Usually I am far OTM and when the market starts to move close to my warning gate (10/15 points from short strike) I look to add hedges where i can. After that I then focus on what support or resistance levels I have between the index and my short strike. So my next mental trigger is based on the support or resistance level or if it gets kind of close to it. Right now 1180 is my trigger point for adjusting. When first selecting the short strikes I like to go as far OTM outside support or resistance so adjustments are rare. In this case I used 1180 as a final support point and used the 1175/1165 strikes. Right now I have been seeing support come in twice when the market moved to 1180 so I have held off on adjusting, getting an additional day or two of time decay. Right now the market closed weaker after a strong opening so my concerns are growing and if we move close to 1180 i may be forced to adjust down another 5 points or so for more cushion for the remaining 6 days or so of trading. My partial hedges will provide some profit if the market moves lower to hopefully cushion the cost of adjusting and prevent a loss. I think your 1,2 and 3 are pretty close but I would summarize differently. First I use approaching to my warning point or breakdown of other support or resistance levels to kick in adding partial hedges. Once the hedges are in place I have a slightly higher comfort level. Then after that, I like to see if support or resistance will hold. Time to expiration is important. With a lot of time left I am more inclined to adjust. With a week left, like now, I am more willing to hold out and monitor the support or resistance. I also make moves on the opposite side to help reduce my risk. For example in the XEO and SPX I added call spreads to bring in more premium to add more potential profit or finance potential adjustments. Risk management is always a work in progress where general rules guide you but you have to stay on top of it and make decisions based on market conditions and time to expiration. Phil
"and if we move close to 1180 i may be forced to adjust down another 5 points or so for more cushion for the remaining 6 days or so of trading." -- Phil, I wonder if 5 points is enough?
Flys are not good hedges... partial or otherwise. Bimodal delta; below the body strike and you're long delta in the fly as well.