Hope you all had a good SEP expiration even with the SET. Of course I had $6k on the table and let my skirt take over and got talked out of it but hey, that is the way it goes. I also did not get to open any SEP positions after AUG expiration and right now I am still empty on OCT. If we can just have a red day I can grab some 1230 or so strikes.
Coach, Do you think the market for SPX will still go up? Would you like to take bear call spread 1370/1375? If not, why? I just want to know your opinion. Thanks.
Yes. I'm comfortable with no directional risk for now. And as long as the VIX is up, I'm laughing. As we move down, I'll become delta negative again by removing the futures one by one and adding a little to the credit spreads.
I think previous highs will acts as some resistance. i do not think we have the steam to get to 1370 as of now but we still have another Fed meeting (though most predict what will happen already). I think the 1370/1375 is as low as I would go right now for short strike and you might be able to get it for $0.40 with an aggressive limit price. That would be a good return. The market always walks into new highs and sprints past new lows. Therefore if we make new highs it will wander a bit and probably not sprint to 1370 right away. If you decide to do the position, set a mental fence at 1365 in order to decide whether to adjust depending on how much time is left to expiration. Only nervous thing is fed meeting next week where good news can push off a +15 up day and that 1370 does not look so far anymore. I would err on the side of caution right now and watch or go another 20 points higher if there is any premium there.
Just got back from a long lunch meeting (mental note, don't do lunch meetings on expiration Friday ever again). Let me see, does anybody know what SET was ? My diagonals played out nicely this month stopping just shy of my 1325 short. Quick back of the envelope numbers show my return on margin was 10.4%, would have done better (around 16%) to get out during the VIX spike last week, live and learn. Now I get to spend the weekend looking for new plays for October.
Have an order for SPX OCT 1380/1390 Call Spreads at $0.45. We will see if I get a fill since I am looking for some pullback throughout the week and on a fed meeting which provides as exepcted news.
Here's another perspective: I've already opened all my Nov/Oct diagonals and am about halfway filled on my Dec/Novs. Mark