SPX Calendar Post Mortem

Discussion in 'Options' started by SteveGoTex, Jun 30, 2009.

  1. The previous month I had good luck with a double calendar on SPX. So I set up another for July expiration with the opinion that we were still range bound on SPX, and IV's were historically low looking back over the last 6 months.

    This month the trade is not looking that good, and I wonder if some of you could comment on the trade, and my own analysis of it.

    All of this is normalized to 1 contract trades.

    Opened 960/940 Double Calendar
    6/11/09 SPX $950 at time of trade
    6/11/09 BOT Aug 960 Call/SLD JUL 960 Call - Debit $12.50
    6/11/09 BOT Aug 940 Put/SLD JUL 940 Put - Debit $14.35

    Added 920 Calendar
    6/15/09 SPX $920 at time of trade
    6/15/09 BOT Aug 920 Call/SLD JUL 920 Call - Debit $12.50

    Closed 940 Calendar, added 880 Calendar
    6/22/09 SPX $893 at time of trade
    6/22/09 SLD Aug 940 Put/BOT JUL 940 Put - Credit $14.10
    6/22/09 BOT Aug 880 Call/SLD JUL 880 Call - Debit $13.60

    6/29 SPX Closed at 927

    When I put on this trade I planned for taking it to a triple calendar, with a maximum loss of about $675, and a target gain of about $500.

    In looking back, I am wondering if I chased this too much. When SPX broke below 900, I took off the 940 calendar and added the 880 calendar. This may have spread things too thin. Plus IV's had spiked some on that downward move, and I paid a premium for that 880 calendar.

    As it stands right now, I am looking at a paper loss of about $500, and the expiration P&L graph is showing break evens of about $910 and $930. The circus tent is just barely above the break even line. I am starting to slide down the "slope of hope."

    If SPX does not move back down, and or the IV's don't move back up, I will need to close this trade out very soon.

    My own take on this is, the second move to take off the 940 calendar and replace it with the 880 was too much messing around with this, and I should have just taken the whole thing off, when SPX hit the break even of the original triple calendar.

    Comments appreciated.

    Steve G