again, excellent point. much of the reason TA works is because memory and psychology is valid for that period of time. if no one ever remembered where their initial buys were, there would not be a thing called resistance. and vice versa. the only reason i think the HS is valid is because everyone is looking at that 5 yr chart. but its hardly strong enough when compared to true mass psychology. there arent enough TA or even wanna be TAs to fullfil that HS chart formation. if the SP500 breaks down it wont be because of "usual" HS breakdowns due to panic at that magic level. it will be because of the economy or some geopolitical event. Then again, if it happens, it happens doesn't it? TA doesn't differentiate btwn psychology or geopolitics. Because often times the market is so smart and forward reading that it even anticipates these events. How very interesting...
Prechter was a bear for all 5 years of the bull market. So please, I don't wanna see him mentioned anywhere again. He's not much more relevant than Abby Cohen.
Prechter, prechtor, Prechter! ok, who cares about him....but to ignore this chart is complete lunacy IMO. Not for daytrading..but for longerterm accounts....I for one am cash in my IRA....and considering re-shorting things in my swing account until I see that down trend break.
I have commented on the long term support for the S&P recently on a few different threads and my concusions are as follows. Next major support for the S&P is 775 Super major massive support at 658. My time targets to get this low are late September, but the 10th till the 20th is the buying window. We could see one very big rally off the shoulder line before heading down again. The hight of the shoulder, which is the Sep 2001 low to the January 2002 high on a points basis is around 230 from memory, so if we subtract this from the 923 - 944 range, we are looking at a 600 -700 point target. This intersects nicely will the super long term support time on the 10 year chart. A september low will take this bear market out to about 30 months which will make it about equal to 29 in terms of length. Remember, tax loss selling this year will be greater than ever, so I expect a lot of selling pressure later in the year. Runningbear
you mean, Prechter was a bear while valuations went skyhigh on promises that were never realized and subsequently were erased? True. Prechter was also a bull in 1982. so if you bought when he was a bull and sold when he went bear you'd still have all your chips and then some. 'course, if you went short, that would be a whole 'nother thing.