SPX 25% fall before election?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by S2007S, Aug 21, 2012.

  1. S2007S


    Im bearish, but have to say I disagree with a 25% fall before the election, there is no way no how a chance of this happening. I could see a 5%-10%, but no way a 25% drop in the S&P. Aside from that I have to say that this market rally is a very unhealthy market rally, we have seen this time and time again, if you dont know where it usually ends up well you better learn because what goes up in this market always comes back down, anyone chasing this market will feel some heavy losses when it does eventually reverse to the downside. Why chase the SPX above 1400 when you can buy it under 1200 in the next 12 months!

    S&P 500 Facing 25% Drop Before US Election: Janjuah
    CNBC.com | August 21, 2012 | 07:38 AM EDT

    The S&P 500 is likely to fall by 20-25 percent over the next three months according to Nomura strategist Bob Janjuah.

    In a research note published on Tuesday, the long-term bear who called the recent rally for U.S. stocks said he expects investors to be back in risk-off mode until the U.S. election is over.

    “I now think the correct thing to do — as I also said in April and June — is to prepare for a serious risk-off phase between August and November…over the August to November period I am looking for the S&P 500 [ .SPX 1421.64 +3.51 (+0.25%) ] to trade off down from around 1400…by 20 to 25 percent...to trade at or below the lows of 2011.”

    Janjuah expects the dollar to be a big beneficiary if the S&P 500 does fall as sharply as he predicts.

    “This coming major risk-off phase will, in my view, also be very dollar bullish and bullish core government bonds,” said Janjuah, who thinks 10-year debt in the U.S., Germany and the U.K. could hit just one percent, and who is predicting more quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve in December.

    Those hoping for a big bazooka from the Fed or the European Central Bank before December will be disappointed, he said.

    We expect “Mr Bernanke to disappoint markets at Jackson Hole next week, and also because we are confident that markets will soon discover that neither the ECB nor Eurozone politicians will actually be able to deliver on their promises,” Janjuah said.

    “For now we are happy to risk 30 S&P points against us, in order to potentially pick up 300 S&P points in our favor.”
  2. Israel wants Romney
    they can strike Iran before elections to achieve that
    Oil will go to $150
    Market easily plunges to 1000

    Bernanke prints as a response - oil goes to 200 market plunges to 800 by new year
  3. S2007S


    Oil cannot sustain $150-$200 in these markets, near me gas prices are already approaching year highs, I just cant see oil going to $150 anytime soon, its at the point where markets trade higher oil trades higher, markets trade lower, oil trades lower.

    The only way oil drops from $100 to say $65-$75 is if the s&p drops to about 1250-1300.
  4. S2007S


    Yahoo Finance Poll


    Financial services firm Nomura predicts the S&P 500 will fall 25% in the next 3 months — do you agree?

    Yes (831)
    No (1960) - your vote

    Thank you for voting!
  5. promagma


    Looking at a chart, that is huge move in 3 months. Retrace of half the bull market. And 30% say "yes"?

    I'm not good at this permabull thing but I think the black swan sentiment is just another indicator, more upside to go. If fact I know some people who moved 401k's to cash sometime over the past year and said they would only reconsider getting back in if the S&P made new highs again.
  6. You know what they say about the market being irrational longer then a person can stay afloat ...

    Israel striking first against IRAN is suicidal - nobody wins when nukes start dropping. Russia had thousands of nukes ... Iran has money - not hard to figure out that equation.

    It's feeling like March 2012 to me - of course the market continued up through the end of April ~

    I can't see how the market doesn't take a 10% dip before November. The Republicans will do everything in their power to tank the market come early November IMO.

    Why does anyone who has a pulse think they'll come to a resolution on the Fiscal Cliff before we go over it ? I read one report saying "experts" only think there's a 15% chance...

    Oh and there is alot that can go wrong between now and Nov that isn't US politics ~
  7. S2007S


    Im so tired of the pointless articles about the fiscal cliff of this and that, its so overhyped its not even funny anymore. They will come to an agreement, they will not let January 1st come and go without having a solution........is there a fiscal cliff to be worried about, the answer is a big NO! Everything will be fixed and solved, its nothing but hype. 15% haha....experts, even a bigger HAHAHAH. They havent a clue what they are talking about.
  8. S2007S


    So the spx makes new highs and then what? I remember in 2007 when everyone was rushing to jump into the market at new highs, after that the market sold off, just because the market makes new highs doesnt guarantee a continuous run of new highs for years to come, if anything these people would be chasing the market....and not only that but say the spx does get to new highs and breaks 1600 or 1750 or even 2000 its given that eventually some time in the next 5-10 years you will be able to buy the spx back under 1200 or even 1000. No one thought the spx would drop below 1000 after it touched new highs in 2007, in fact everyone was predicting markets to go even higher and guess what happened, they lost half their value, the same can happen again. What can advance this market an additional 20%, 35% 50% or even 100%???? The last 30+ years of market gains have come through the creation of asset bubbles, the economy no longer can achieve growth on its own, its all done through the creation of money pumping and lower interest rates. Every time the market has rallied its been through the creation of an asset bubble whether it was a housing bubble, commodity bubble, etc etc...show me real growth without the money printing and QE and operation twist. Lets see real economic growth, without BUBBLE ben bernanke pumping the market with trillions of worthless dollars, then maybe I could believe a true bull market rally for once, all these rallies are based off of nothing more than cheap worthless money printing dollars!!!!
  9. promagma


    Right. If Joe Public is tempted to jump back in.... maybe it is time to worry :p
  10. The Chief Equity Strategist for Goldman Sachs told clients to be in cash, Wall Street always says 'buy buy buy'...guy decided he'd rather keep his credibility than make a couple more dollars this year. Smart move.

    What about the inflationary effect of the previous QE's combined with rising taxes and with those two factors, unemployment hasn't budged. Cost of living is going to keep rising, the "shared prosperity" that Obama preaches is going to run out of other people's money to spread around (to the government who have the largest and least sane economy in the world to tax, and still can't pay their bills).

    IMO a little deflation is what we need, now only a little bit maybe 5-10%, price of goods decreases, the unemployed and unemployed can consume more in the domestic picture, in the global picture the dollar then buys more of other countries' goods since we are the largest consuming nation. I may be crazy but how the hell would I know, if I am.

    Also the fact that uncle Ben didn't see the housing bubble coming isn't that bad, but the fact that he didn't see it coming but other people DID, is very bad.
    #10     Aug 25, 2012