I figured that one of the "market ways" is to move in such a manner as to transfer the maximum amount of money from the accounts of one group of traders to the accounts of the other group of traders. Let's see if we can apply this principle to the current market. It looks like a great many trend-following traders are anxiously waiting for the highly anticipated SPX break above 1400, so that they can jump on the long side of the "clear uptrend". What's the best way to take their money? I'd say it would be to do just that: push SPX through 1400, let the "trenders", "MACDers", "channelers", and the "breakers" go long, and then force them out by a sharp sell off down to, say, SPX 1330. From there, when everyone on Earth is convinced that it's the end of the world, SPX will explode up to new all time highs by the end of the year. So, if I were Mr. Market, my evil plan would be: 1. Within the next few days, break through SPX 1400. 2. Let the "longers" joing the party. That would lift SPX to about 1450 in the course of the next few days after the break above 1400. 3. Sell off to 1330 by end of May. 4. A big time rally to above all time highs by year end.
You forget one thing in the equation. Feds are on the side of bulls. They will throw so many monkey wrenches in your " small time evil plans" that you would be running from pillar to post beating your monkey and getting bitch slapped every which way to heaven. PS: Do you know anything about Technical Analysis? If not bone up before you make these stupid posts.
SPX will clear 1400 easily and go higher from there. The doouble bottom which is an extremely accurate TA signal was made at 1250-1270
Any bounce from here is going to be short lived. TA is only good for short-term analysis (statistical analysis). Fundamentals trump technicals long-term and right now, there is NOTHING in the macro-economics of the economy right now pointing to an upside. "Wishing" the market up is not going to work no matter how many times you parrot the exact same thing. Look...I'm 75% long as well in my positions, but I'm also not a delusional idiot when it comes to analysis. I hedge my long positions and look to grind out small gains from the hedges during bear markets. Open up your eyes and realize that you can trade both sides even if you have a preference for one side of the market.
The fundamentals aren't that bad, actually. The markets can log 7-15 % YTD returns with a low interest, slow growth environemnt thanks to a cheap dollar, strong consumer spending, resonable valuations, defense spending, and strong exports. The time to short the markets is when there is euphoria or when there is really bad news, but that isn't the case now which is why the markets will keep going higher.
Are you kidding me? The fundamentals are bad right now. Inflation is high, the consumer is maxed out in terms of being able to spend, thousands of wall st./finance jobs are disappearing, there is no lending, the money supply is contracting, there is no new tech/productivity "booms" to drive a new bull. Face it, the fundamentals are pretty horrid right now. Seriously, just let the market run its course and weed out the weak companies. If the market were to grow 15% over the next year, that would be nothing more than an inflated bubble waiting to burst. It's actually better for a long drawn out base with very little growth. Right now, the last thing the economy really needs is a volatile market to scare investors. A market growing 15% is exactly the kind of volatility that will just prolong the time that it will take before the next slow climb of a bull will start. Now, I like volatility as much as the next trader, but don't confuse 15% growth in the market over a year as a sign that the economy is doing well. 15% growth is an anomaly. If you are an investor (as I take it from your posts that you are), you want slow growth...trust me.
Its a matter of time SPX takes out 1400. NDX had done that its above all resistance including 200 day. DJIA is above resistance and the 50 day rising. This will make the market trending only in one direction... that is up... and Bulls will rule Bears and the distateful shorts for another 2 years. This should kill all the rats that caused this plague.
Please don't tell me that you're trying to predict 2 years out based upon a "moving average"? Again, TA in the long-term is nothing more than a lagging indicator of the fundamentals. TA can work on the short-term, but it is not a long-term predictor.
Your argument is flawed and your thought process is muddled. I'm not going to bother refuting your points because it doesn't matter. I won't change your mind and you won't change mine. We'll just have to see what the market does to know who is right.