Spreads versus Butterfly

Discussion in 'Options' started by wxytrader, Aug 7, 2024.

  1. Wait...did D just give a price projection? :)

    Actually my trade was pretty simple...price typically retraces at least .38, and the MACD confirms so the timing put it @ about 17 on Aug23...hopefully it doesn't blow through the other side...but between 16.50-17.50 I profit $300-$800. The trade only cost me $200 so the return on risk is good.

    btw the price action also confirms it...if you watch enough charts you will see that on the open they sucked in a lot of traders and stopped them out before the move up. The day will probably finish with a doji (dragonfly) or a hammer.

    upload_2024-8-20_8-7-43.png
     
    Last edited: Aug 20, 2024
    #51     Aug 20, 2024
  2. poopy

    poopy

    Fly is trading at a two cent debit.
     
    #52     Aug 21, 2024
  3. That's what happens when price goes up on a put fly...premium goes down. :) I am in the butter zone right now with my 16/17/18...if it holds this price range I go from $134 to $680 pnl.


    Wait...according to my sheet the 14/16/16.5 was cheaper yesterday than today? This would mean price is skewing as there is an expectation that the price is going to pull back...it's anticipating a trend reversal! Options are fun! :)


    Yesterday

    upload_2024-8-21_8-59-27.png

    Today

    upload_2024-8-21_9-0-38.png
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2024
    #53     Aug 21, 2024
  4. poopy

    poopy

    It's up 15 cents here (on marks). Things would go easier if you were at least borderline functional. Entered at a 12 cent credit.
     
    #54     Aug 21, 2024
    Adam777 likes this.
  5. Nice! But I don't think its going to go your way by exp...might have to roll it out.
     
    #55     Aug 21, 2024
  6. poopy

    poopy

    It's going to lose more than its 3 cent debit?
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2024
    #56     Aug 21, 2024
  7. What are the prices of each leg? How did you get .15?? You broke my pnl chart I think because its showing an arb or something where if price continues up your min loss is a $152 gain. However if it drops to 14 you lose $1348.
     
    #57     Aug 21, 2024
  8. poopy

    poopy

    lol.
     
    #58     Aug 21, 2024
  9. upload_2024-8-21_9-39-5.png

    upload_2024-8-21_9-24-51.png
     
    Last edited: Aug 21, 2024
    #59     Aug 21, 2024
  10. poopy

    poopy

    14/16/16.5 121 put fly.
     
    #60     Aug 21, 2024