Spreads in The Meats

Discussion in 'Ag Futures' started by stoic, Feb 1, 2013.

  1. stoic

    stoic

    Jan. 2013 Feedlot spread.

    aka Cattle Crush
     
  2. these names.. haha .. ag spreads... how does one define their risk on these?
     
  3. stoic

    stoic


    The Jan. 2013 is a good one to look at since we have the infrequent occurrence of negative GFM (Gross Feeding Margin) and the excessive moves in the Corn markets.

    So, for example say we wanted to put on the spread with expectations that the GFM will turn positive.
    In this case we Short the inputs, Feeders and the Corn, and Long the Live Cattle. For this example we'll put on the spread on 5/8/12 the second time the chart appears to show a bounce from the negative 1.50 per cwt. on the 5-4-10.

    Short FC @ 161.700
    Short C @ 539.50
    Long LC @ 126.600

    On 7/2 the lowest day with GFM @ -3.188 we have prices of:
    Short FC @ 156.700 for a profit of $12,500
    Short C @ 664.00 for a loss of $24,900
    Long LC @ 127.950 for a profit of $5,400
    net loss (drawdown) $7,000

    On 7/18 the GFM is positive to almost 1
    Short FC @ 146.225 P/L = $38,687.50
    Short C @ 783.25 P/L = ($48,750)
    Long LC @ 131.500 P/L = $19,600
    Net P/L = $9,537.50
     
  4. Keep a good thing to yourself and get this thread deleted!
     
  5. So your trading effectively the convergence of input to output ..
    Corn.grain make cattle .... cattle cant stay cheap relative to expensive imputs