I don't have any facts. That's why I started my sentence with "IMO." IN MY OPINION, I think he knows what he's doing. Btw, 1. .50 2. Yes 3. 75% Have a great weekend!
To be honest, tj, I am really much more interested in your answers to the questions you have posed. I have a suspicion that, like with other matters you've chosen to voice your opinion on, you are rather less informed than you think you are. Here are my answers, regardless: 1) 0.5 in most practical cases. However, the real answer is that it depends on a variety of factors, not the least of which is whether by ATM you actually meant ATMF. There's also model choice, asset class (for FX options, there's all sorts of possible quirks) etc. 2) No, not exactly, but it might as well be yes. Most mkt practitioners will assume that an ATMF straddle is 0 delta, even though it's not strictly speaking true. Moreover, again it depends on the asset class, etc. 3) The answer is nobody knows the real probability. The risk-neutral probability of the call expiring ITM is N(d2). Delta, sometimes and for certain instruments, can be viewed as an approximation of the risk-neutral probability of the call ending ITM.
He asked the "probability of the price visiting (touching) the strike" not the probability of expiring ITM (expiring at the strike or above it). The true probability of touch for drift-free brownian motion is: N(-0.5*sigma*sqrt(T)-ln(K/S))+(S/K)*N(0.5*sigma*sqrt(T)-ln(K/S)) or approximately twice N(d2). Twice the delta is a slightly worse approximation. So knowing only the delta your best guess would be 50%.
I check in here every so often to read, but haven't felt the need to post until now. I am a current student of Bone's and I couldn't be any happier with my experience with him so far. He was actually recommended to me by an ET member who posts very rarely, but is very successful in his own trading. He was very aware of Bone's expertise (despite the picture some of you guys try to paint), and sent me to him when I was finally ready to pull the trigger on getting serious with futures/spreads. I did all of my homework before signing up with Pete - not only did I contact his references, I spent some time emailing and talking with Pete himself before signing up. The audited history didn't matter so much to me (say what you will). I believe that Pete's expertise is VERY evident in any/all of his posts right here on ET. I also felt that asking the right questions, AFTER having spent some time learning about the guy and what it is he was offering, really did wonders for my confidence. Pete is a take it or leave it kind of guy - very down to earth, very likeable, and very easy to get along with. He has no agenda whatsoever. Add on top of that the fact that he's teaching you his personal, tangible edge in the market, with 6 months of training for a reasonable price, and it's pretty tough thing to beat. That's my opinion anyway. I do understand how many can be skeptical of programs like this at times - but c'mon, really - take everything else out of the equation. As bone says himself, don't you think you would have heard about it by now if he was ripping people off, let alone if his clients were the slightest bit unhappy with what they were paying for?!?! How long has he been around here now as a paying sponsor???
Ah, yes, I stand corrected... I assumed tj was banging on about the same subject as one of his other threads.
I just wish he would spend some of his multifigure income on a semi decent website. The current one is like the expression of some kind of LSD trip done with an etch-a-sketch.
The audited history didn't matter so much to me. The audited history didn't matter so much to me. The audited history didn't matter so much to me. How dense can you be? Testimonials only impress the uninformed. A serious trader wants hard cold proof. And your testimony - from an unknown 1-poster. In the past, these are usually the person shilling for himself, so I won't say more...
I get your point, but you missed my point. I was the uninformed! As I mentioned, I am new to the game, so why would I take someone's word for the quality of their own product with no outside opinion? I don't have the trading background that you imply a prospective student would have, as to allow them the chance to understand such "hard cold proof", assuming it was available. Yes he could have an audited track record to show me - but in reality, as a newbie, how do I really know what I'm looking at, or even if it's authentic (coming from anyone selling an education service)? From my perspective, I wanted to hear from people who started in situations similar to me, how they progressed, and how they came out of program on the other side. All of the references spoke highly, I couldn't find a negative word about the guy (other than the crap you guys throw at him from time to time in threads like these), and one of my buddies who has done very well trading for himself, suggested I get in touch with Pete, based on his knowledge of Pete's expertise, and previous work with known clientele. I can't say at this point whether or not what I'm learning will be making me steady money or not, hell, I don't even know if it will be profitable at all. All I can say at this point (2 months into the program) is that everything about Pete is genuine, his system makes sense, and I have already learned so much more with him in a short time than I ever could have on my own. My expectations are high through the balance of the training, but overall, I'm very satisfied to this point. I would say to check back with me in 4-6 months, but if you don't believe me now, why would you believe me then? As for this being my 2nd post, all I can say is that I've never really had much interest in posting here, in any thread, for the simple reason that most threads seem to follow the track that this one has. There is some great info to start, or at points throughout a conversation, but then the thread gets ripped apart by all of the bs that goes on around here. Why waste my time? In this specific instance, I thought I'd try to help a guy out here since you all insist on treating him like a villain.
So you think Bone has created multiple handles to self promote himself, lol? There have been lots of people that do not post in general post in this thread that Bone is genuine about what he is talking about, me included. You have a right to be cynical, but you are really going overboard about it. No one has come back into this thread that was a client of his and has said something bad about him. It's not like Bone could stop people from posting in this thread even he wanted to. You say a serious trader would want hard cold proof. Bone is more than willing to give you a whole list of things that you can independently verify if you wanted to spend the time doing it. You could do a background check and look him up with the exchanges too. You can contact previous employers. In the end, you are either going to believe it or not. For a "serious trader", I wouldn't consider $6,500 an amazing amount of money either, so why the hard on about MUST seeing 18 years of audited trades. Doesn't mean you shouldn't do due diligence and throw money away, but he gives more than enough information to make any reasonable person satisfied that he isn't scamming people. Even this can come down to a risk/reward scenario. Risk is it is possible he is lying, even though he isn't, and that his methods won't help you. The reward is that his methods will make you profitable or even more profitable. It's up to each individual to determine what's right for their situation, but give it a break with the scam bs. It is far from that, and Bone does a good job.