tradingUrinals, when you gonna update your $100 journal? http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=221311&perpage=30&pagenumber=6
The hand of a wanker is the wife of no one. But if you happen to receive trades in the lower back, the last sentence may not apply.
Funny. Sorry I couldn't resist. Good luck to you and take solace in the fact I am rubbing one out now thinking of you.
I hereby nominate your post for "Best ET post of 2011."* _____________ *But it requires Martinhouls' "Say What?" to put it in context.
There is a saying that goes like " trees are judged by their fruits". One year ago when the bond market was at a top, someone (not me) started a thread asking a question "who are the idiots bullish the bonds"? The bonds (hindsight) upmoves were ferocious. I was bearish. Two posters on this thread (I believe Martinghoul and Maverick) were ...: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=204939&highlight=who+are+the+idiots Note that to be a bull at a top ( or bear at a bottom) is an impressive achievement in probs (but less so in results), because the event has the same low prob as one being bearish at a top and bullish at a bottom! A small chance for people to be wrong, but there are people who do not miss that chance. If one picks a top and is right, it could be due to luck. But if one is bullish at a top should one attribute it to luck or to skill given the low probs?
This is a second part to the above post. A number of posts here on ET raise spreads trading when the question of timing the direction is discussed. One gets the impression that the message in those posts is that spreads are easier to trade than direction. It may be true, or it may not. I do not know, until I see the evidence. The argument the posts give is something like: it is easier to recognize and trade relative value than to recognize and trade direction. A purpose of this thread was to get the posters who state such things to come to this thread and give examples of spreads that would demonstrate whether relative value is indeed easier to recognize and trade. There are posters on this thread whom I understand are spread-trade posters. Until now, we have not heard anything from them on the topic of spreads, yet last Friday's news is significant enough and unexpected, and it therefore should not be difficult for them to show their knowledge/skills in spread trading.
let me see if i understand this. are you saying that right now the market is at an important point after the job report and that now is a good time to set up trades for positional traders (with 1 month or longer time horizon)? specifically you would like to challenge spread traders to show how they are positioned right now and then monitor if those trades work out as the current trend develops.