Hey Nitro, I assume you are talking about options as a way to enter the soybean trade. Options are a very different ballgame. Trading spreads are like other types of trading as far as holding periods go. Keep scalping the Market Backw
You traders remind me of so many dreamers. We have a trade here that had been going profitably for about a month. With two more months to go. This trade demonstrates how a seasonal thrust can make you over $100.00 a week. Talk about trading against the trend. You say you will enter X/N. Go back check it. You claim you are going to trade against the Seasonal trend. Suicide. Hay back to school you guys. First, this spread is in a trend. The Long SN3/Short SX3 is up $1,438.00 as of Fridays close since WSC suggested it. It has been up $1,800.00. You cannot flip your chart over and make a real loss look like some kind of Prophets profit. First, you have to go back and delete your previous posts or everyone is going to see. The Spread follows it original trend and now you are both counting your loses as profits. This is what is wrong with paper trading. With real funds at risk, you would learn very quickly about trading against the trend. On paper, you can spew out helpless theories like in the above example. Big gains are long term in Seasonal Spreads. Do you expect to play this game on excuses? âWould have entered,â how funny. Lets see what type of trade is this. Itâs a long-term seasonal trade in a bull market! The last time it was even near support was in January below 25. Can anybody else read this chart. Covered my costs do you mean my airline tickets or the tune-up on my car. How can cutting winners short cover my costs? I donât trade to break even. This trade is up about over grand and has two months of pyramiding to go. That might begin to cover my costs. The only reason part is working is because I have not averaged up the full extent yet. Good trading was getting in a month ago and building a winning position to get out two months from now. Originally, this was a three-month spread. While long-term Seasonal Calendar Traders are at the beach, these spectators are going to talk about the trades they missed. Take tremendous risks on counter seasonal actual trades, and at best scalp tiny profits. If they do get a trend, they will probably cut the winners short trying to cover commissions for their brokers. The game is building big positions and giving trends time to unfold.
Joeâs book is a great book about trading spreads but you have already started with Reminiscences which will give you a broader foundation. Joeâs book is a little advanced for your first trade. Sure, you will need to learn Ross, but there is no reason why you cannot start trading now and read it when you get it. Better than Joesâs book, to start is Joe Ross's free introduction to Spread Trading. Great lets get some profitable spreads going then reread Livermore. From here Spread Trading is a good primer. Yes! Jerry will give you a free trial, start it next Friday. I am pretty sure WSC will give us a Calendar spread perfect for starting out next week. There is a good chance you will have profits before the free trial runs out. This Meal chart will probably change in 18 hours. This is the trend we will be trying to ride.WSC already has us in this trend with different months. Therefore, in a way for us it will be averaging up. For you it will be a new position. We trade long term. So, we are going in and out on different dates. Overlapping and rolling spreads over. It keeps us in the stronger part of the trends and spreads out our income and losses. This week make sure you have a broker assisted account open so that you can put on your first Calendar spread the following week. You now have time to search the web and the local library to learn all that you want so that you will be able to pull the trigger next week.
Joeâs book is a great book about trading spreads but you have already started with Reminiscences which will give you a broader foundation. Joeâs book is a little advanced for your first trade. Sure, you will need to learn Ross, but there is no reason why you cannot start trading now and read it when you get it. Better than Joesâs book, to start is Joe Ross's free introduction to Spread Trading. Great lets get some profitable spreads going then reread Livermore. From here Spread Trading is a good primer. Yes! Jerry will give you a free trial, start it next Friday. I am pretty sure WSC will give us a Calendar spread perfect for starting out next week. There is a good chance you will have profits before the free trial runs out. This Meal chart will probably change in 18 hours. This is the trend we will be trying to ride. WSC already has us in this trend with different months. Therefore, in a way for us it will be averaging up. For you it will be a new position. We trade long term. So, we are going in and out on different dates. Overlapping and rolling spreads over. It keeps us in the stronger part of the trends and spreads out our income and losses. This week make sure you have a broker assisted account open so that you can put on your first Calendar spread the following week. You now have time to search the web and the local library to learn all that you want so that you will be able to pull the trigger next week.
Pretzel, let me quote MRCI: When you read Moore's "Spread Portfolio" you should keep in mind that no trade management techniques are applied no consideration of money management / position sizing none of the trades were filtered in any way Take a look at the "losers" in the portfolio and ask yourself: Would you really enter FVM3-USM3 at the recommended date? Would you enter HUM3-HOM3 when you see the spread in a defined downtrend? And would you really trade Pork Bellies? Even if you would have entered these spreads: Who would stay in the FVM3-USM3 Spread (see picture) until the recommended exit date? (assuming he is mentally sane) You asked, so here are my 2 cents: MRCI provides an excellent research service, but only that. Futures Spread Trading is one of the most profitable and safest way to trade the markets IF you apply basic trading principles. Does that help? Markus
Markus, Thanks for your input. So the argument that "how can it be wrong when it is correct 14 out of 15 years" or something "has had profits in every single one of the last 15 years" is incorrect. Anyway, Jerry Toepke's newsletter is a subset of the MRCI's recommendations - I think only 2 out of the many per week. I dont subscribe to it so I dont know the results. Maybe his picks will filter out the losing spreads? pretzel
âCalendar spreads hit about a 66% win rate, and accounted for $22k of the $37k total. They got 59% of the total spread profits with only 42% of all the trades. Calendars had about 40% larger average trade than all spreads combined.â Click for: 2001-2002 Hypothetical Moore Reports Results!