what I have learned in the last 20 years trading futures that there ARE NO sure things and with spreads you are better off trading them like long or short the market and use seasonality as a pep. It has marginal value at best. If the market is bullish the seasonal will help but if they are not it will cost you. Many people are oversold on seasonals and THINK that they will have this great edge, well guess what their little marginal knowledge is not at all secret or even true - but it is often pawned as a "sure thing" even if implied only.....
andrasnm, >> use seasonality as a pep. It has marginal value at best. << I was really interested to read this. I'm new to futures and have read quite a bit of hoopla about seasonals. But when I study actual longterm charts of commodities, like Soybeans for instance, I'm extremely unimpressed w/the seasonal factor. I can see why a trader would keep it in mind and if the cycle seems to be playing out as it should and other technical factors support it, it could indeed be a tool in the toolbox. But I'm certainly not going to make it a major part of my strategy, as some books/sites recommend. Harold
Howard Abells book is new and seems good - while I never read it I would look at that to start. Most of my spread material is ancient and I only look at forums and charts now to keep current. I read spreadscope (not a subscriber) http://www.larrylowe.com/ss/home.html free charts at http://www.britefutures.com/BFCharts/BFSpreadChart.asp I am also looking at TnT's software (Gecko Software) but will not buy it - it is called Track and Trade...you can play with it for 30 days and it is a GREAT teaching tool for spreads...
It appears that Abell's book is fluff and focuses on psychology a little too much and the spread context is interviews with floor spread traders - not exactly a common goal for us. The only critique on Courtney Smith's book was from our very own "goldtrader" from Hawaii, but that book is perhaps a better choice for starter.