Sports Picks

Discussion in 'Sports' started by expiated, Aug 14, 2021.

  1. expiated


    I have begun to pursue interests directly or indirectly related to trading to a greater or lesser degree now that I am probably wrapping up the compete refinement of my Forex system, which is why I am presently planning to look into sports betting as well.

    A month ago I began the process of finishing up my learning how to code in Metaquotes Query Language, and later today, I plan to begin the same kind of self-education with respect to the above topic. Since I am more interested in pursuing this as a hobby than in discussing athletic teams and players, I started the thread here under Chit Chat rather than under Sports.

    My timing is because I suspect the chart configuration I put together on Friday (but have yet to actually attempt to put into use) is the culmination of everything that came before it, and as such, should eliminate any need to continue working on my forecast models any longer. It is based on entering positions when there is divergence between the lower panel oscillator and histogram, and the simplified version below illustrates why I believe it should lead to consistent profits, God willing.

    Divergence Strategy.png

    The connection between Sports Picks and trading is that in both cases, my angle is to rely on statistical odds and mathematical probability. I will be attempting to learn from someone who supposedly makes a lot of money from this type of activity, so I'm looking forward to eventually putting his ideas to the test.

    Though, as a follower of Yeshua Hmashiach, I can see at least five reasons to be extremely cautious here:
    1. There is the danger of denying the reality of God's sovereignty by relying on luck.
    2. There is a potential for irresponsible stewardship in the form of throwing away money.
    3. It could result in the erosion of a biblical work ethic as the proper means of securing one's livelihood.
    4. It can be motivated by sin (greed and covetousness).
    5. It is built on the exploitation of others—often taking advantage of poor people who think they can gain instant wealth.
    However, as with trading, my plan is to take a very level-headed approach to this endeavor, which should mitigate all but the very last concern. As to whether this final consideration should, in the end, bar my participation in what might otherwise be a very lucrative pastime is still an unsettled issue for me.
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2021
  2. expiated


    The following notes might contain a lot of typos and/or inaccuracies. However, I am pasting them here anyway intending for them to serve merely as a way for me to start familiarizing myself with sports picks terminology, and as a reference I can return to in the future when I find that certain ideas have begun to slip my memory, or to identify concepts I wish to investigate in greater detail.

    What are some of the sports betting options?

    First, let's talk about college football season, or NFL season, team win totals.

    So, what is that?

    What Vegas will do, or the bookies will do, or the sports books will do, if they will put up an estimated number of total wins they think a team will have over the course of the regular season.

    So in college football, for example, everybody plays 12 games. And so, they will predict how many wins. They may say that they think they are going to win seven and a half. Well, what does that mean? You cannot win half a game.

    What they mean is that if you think they are going to win seven games or fewer, then you would bet the under of the seven and a half.

    If you thought they would rent eight games or more, you would predict the over for the seven and a half.

    Now, sometimes it will not have that half, what is commonly called "the hook" in sports betting parlance. The hook is designed so that there is guaranteed to be a winner and a loser, because you cannot win seven and a half.

    So, in some cases, they don’t have that. In some cases it will say eight, or nine, or three, or eleven, or whatever. And there…there can be a "push."

    So, let's say they think Alabama will win eleven games. In that context, if Alabama does go eleven and one out of their twelve games, then in that context, you would get your money back. Neither side, the book doesn’t win, you don’t win, you just get your money back. It’s called "a push."

    So, a push is when what you predicted would occur happened right on the nose, as opposed to, and what Vegas predicts as well.

    So, that's basically what those win totals mean.

    Similarly, there is something called against the spread, or the points, or the line. What is that?

    Well, to use college football as an example, once again, the first game of the year, Alabama is up against Miami. Alabama is favored by 17 and a half points by some sports books.

    Now once again, you cannot win by 17 and a half. That is where the hook comes in so that somebody is going to win and somebody is going to news that bet. You cannot get a push, where neither the sports book makes any money, nor you make any money—you just get your money back.

    So, the 17 and a half is if you think Alabama will win by 17 or less, or you think that Alabama will not win it all and Miami will win, then you bet on Miami plus 17 and a half against Alabama.

    The minus goes to the favorite. Let's say you think Alabama will win by 18 points or more. Then you bet on Alabama minus 17 and a half to "cover the spread."

    That is what the "line" is in college football.

    Now, there are other options you have. Other options include bedding was called "the money line."

    In soccer, it can be the goal line, or to win or lose, and that's the norm. (The goal line can be bigger than the actual goals.)

    But getting back to Alabama and Miami, to use that as a simple example for now, but that would be is...let's say Alabama is a 90% favorite.

    Then they might be listed as "minus 1000."

    In Miami might be at 10% chance to win as an underdog, so they might be "plus 1000," or "plus 900."

    Sometimes you will see the sparity, and the reason you will see the sparity is the sports book wants to lock in a profit. They want to make sure they get a percentage, so you are never going to get straightforward odds.

    So let's say that Alabama is a 90% favorite and Miami has a 10% chance to win, they are going to give Alabama a 93% chance to win and Miami a 13% chance to win, and that extra is "the vigorish," It's what’s called “the vig.” It’s for the sports book to make profit.

    So, let's say you think Alabama has a less than 90% chance to win, or Miami, greater than a 10% or 13% chance to win (depending on where the odds are), then you would bet them and there would be minus 1000 say on Alabama.

    What does that mean?

    Well, that's the amount you have to "lay," which is to say, the amount you have to bet it even 100. So, in order to win $100, you would have to bet (or risk) $1000 on Alabama.

    On the other hand, to win $100 on Miami, you would only have to bet $10 or 11 dollars, because they are plus 900. But, they are a long shot for a reason, of course. So, it depends on whether you think the probabilities are better than what the bookies think, than what sports books think, what the sports betting market thinks. And that’s called “the money line.”

    The other thing you could bet is something called the total.

    What is the total?

    The total is the total amount of points you believe will happen in the game. So let's say the total for Alabama and Miami is 63 and a half. What that translates into is if you think both teams combined will score 64 or more points, you would bet the over.

    If, on the other hand, that both teams' scores combined together, added together, will lead to 63 points or less, then you would bet the "under" the total.

    You can also have money line bets, spread bets, points lines bets, and totals bets on the first half, sometimes on first quarters, and second quarters, and third quarters, and fourth quarters, depending on the game, depending on the sport…you could have a wider range of betting. You could even bet that a certain team will score more or less a certain number of points…that the margin of victory will be bigger or smaller than even the spread…etc.

    Sometimes they will halve alternative points lines, or alternative money lines, and that means that….say…in Alabama and Miami’s case, you might be able to bet on Alabama to win by 21 or more, or 24 or more, or 27 or more…or bet on Miami to keep it to within 10 or less, or 7 or less,..etc.

    It depends on the sports book, and on the game, and on the sport, as to the amount of betting options and alternatives available.

    But that is a basic introduction to sports betting.

    In soccer, it is typically win, lose or draw, like in the English Premier League (what the rest of the world calls football). And so, you might have a certain percentage chance they think each team will win, and a certain percentage chance that they think the game will end up in a draw, and that usually shows up in a money line number.

    And again, it is that same corresponding number. So maybe plus 200 for each team to win or for there to be a draw...for each hundred you bet, you would win 200. They are saying there is a one in three chance of each of those three outcomes occurring, and if you think the odds are wrong, you can bet accordingly.

    You also have what is called a goal line, and a goal line is for one team to win by maybe one goal or more, one and a half goals are more, two goals…etc. — same dynamic as the points line in American college and pro football.

    Similarly, you will have a total, the total amount of goals combined between both teams — the same kinds of betting options will exist in that world as it exists in American college and professional football.

    So that's a basic introduction to how the lines work, how the odds work, how some of the futures work…other things you see with futures might be the chance that a certain team will not only win a certain number of games, but maybe that a certain team will win their division or their conference….say…in college football…will win their conference overall…will make the playoffs…will win the national championship…etc.

    So, those odds will often be in that money line denomination…say…Alabama plus 250 to win the national championship.

    What are the sports books saying, what are the bookies saying, what is the sports market saying?

    The sports betting market is saying they think there is about a 30% chance or so that Alabama will be the national champion.

    If you think they have better odds than that, then you take that, and you would bet $100 to win $250. The same goes for every other team.

    For example, Clemson might be plus 400, etc. And the way you can figure out the correspondence is kind of a mathematical division. For instance, if you are betting $100 when $400, what they are really saying is that team has about a 20% to 25% chance, in that case, a victory.

    So if you think there is a better than 20% chance, then you might take it. If you don't think there is, then you may either bet against it, or not bet on it at all.

    There are also ways to sell some of those futures tickets…because again…futures just means something you think will happen in the future…and it is according to a set odds, and if you think the odds are higher than what Vegas thinks, and you are making a futures bet, sometimes you can sell that futures bet in what is called the prop swap market.

    So, it is another place where you can buy and sell bets. Also, in some of what are called supporting exchanges in England and around the world, seems like Bet Fair, you can buy and sell a bet. So you might buy a bet thinking, for example, "Okay, I don't think Miami is going to cover the spread. I think Alabama is going to win by 18 or more. But, I think that spread is going to come down between now and game time. So, maybe I bet Miami, wait for it to go down, and then sell the debt in those markets. Or maybe I do what's called "middling" or "arbitrage" and I bet the other side so I can get a middle."

    And what does that mean?

    That means I bet Miami to cover is 17 and a half, but let's say the spread drops to 13 and a half, and so then I bet Alabama. So then, if Alabama wins by 18 or more, I win one that, and lose the other bet, and only lose the vigorish.

    But let's say there's a chance at Alabama wins by 14, or 15, or 16, or 17…in between those two tickets that I have, then I win both bets. And so arbitrage is where you think there is a better chance that you will win both bets enough to pay off the risk of having to pay the vig if you only win one of the two bets.

    That's just one of the examples…but there are more…many of which might be viewed as alternative "investments" that are often safer, more reliable, and quicker than what Wall Street might have to offer.
    vanzandt likes this.
  3. expiated


    These aren't sports teams, but they were just recommended to me, nonetheless...

    Political Wager Recommendations: 8/15/21
    Newsom Recall YES: 25%
    Newsom Recall San Diego YES: 45%
    California Governor 12/31/21 ELDER: 19%
    Biden 8/18 RCP Approval Under 50%: 56%
    Debt Limit Raised by 10/31 YES: 33%

  4. Overnight


    Yes. The absolute perfect compliment to trying to establish a profitable trading system in Forex is to addle your brain by getting deeply involved in sports betting. It's a brilliant plan if your goal is to become confused.

    Gonna' compound your sports bets at 1.8% after each win?
  5. expiated


    Last edited: Aug 27, 2021
  6. expiated


    Seeing as how the Cornhuskers suffered a loss at the the hands of the Illini 22 to 30, things seem to be off to a somewhat shaky start...

  7. expiated


  8. vanzandt


    Maybe have @Magna move this to the sports forum?
  9. expiated


    Nah... I'm pursuing this just as a hobby rather than any desire to discuss the thrill of victory or the agony of defeat. And besides, I have no favorite players or teams.
  10. expiated


    1. Boise State's offense averaged an abysmal 4.35 yards per play, which normally nets about 14 points, against the pedestrian UCF defense, suggesting the coaching shift and personnel changes in the land of great potatoes forecast a down season for the boys on the Blue Carpet.
    2. Rutgers' points explosion didn't come from offensive firepower, as they averaged a miserly 4.6 yards per play against a weak Temple team. Look for under opportunities in the near future.
    3. Iowa got fat on defensive scores, and its defensive dominance accounted for the final score, not its offense, which remains inept, averaging a miserable 4.7 yards per play.
    4. Virginia Tech's defensive effort did great, but its erratic offense continues to haunt Fuentes' teams, with a poor 4.8 yards per play.
    5. The Ducks didn't quack well offensively in Eugene against the likes of Fresno State, foreshadowing trouble in Columbus this weekend unless they switch QBs to the talented young frosh.
    6. Rocky Top's 5.4 yards per play against the lowly likes of Bowling Green ain't getting anywhere in the SEC this year unless they too make a change at QB.
    7. Stanford was downright awful on both sides of the ball, as the doubters in Vegas cashed easy tickets that the final score underestimated. Their anemic offense against a weak Wildcat defense matched a far worse defensive performance than the final score suggested, as they gave up 7.6 yards per play, which usually results in 40+ points.
    8. The final score gave USC a healthier margin than the metrics suggest they deserved, as USC gave up 5.8 yards per play to mediocre San Jose State, suggesting another pedestrian defense in LaLa land.
    9. Pitt's offensive performance wasn't quite what the final score suggested, as their yards per play (6.9) against UMass was one of the worst performances against the defensively hapless Minutemen in the last two years.
    10. Charlotte's upset of Duke was more luck than performance, as Duke's yards per play metric would have them winning by double digits most of the time.

    Green Lights: Even more promising future performances than the final score suggested. Top Ten Green Lights:
    1. Kentucky's defense was lights-out, allowing only 1.4 yards per play.
    2. Texas Tech's final score underestimates how much they dominated Houston, as their metrics forecast a normal 30 point victory margin.
    3. Tennessee's defense forecasts more total unders than Vegas forecast, as the Vols held Bowling Green to the same statistical performance as Notre Dame's playoff-level dominant defense two years ago.
    4. The final score and 4th quarter rally hid how dominant Arkansas' defense was against the boys from Rice (only 4.1 yards per play), as they await the bigger boys from Texas this weekend.
    5. Indiana's defense showed as much as promise as its offense showed futility, holding the Hawkeyes to only 4.7 yards per play.
    6. Sparty absolutely decimated Northwestern, not just on the scoreboard, but in the stat sheet as well, with a typical winning margin over 30 points.
    7. Auburn came out much better prepared than anyone predicted on the plains, as their stat sheet would normally forecast a win margin of over 70 points!
    8. Michigan found a real talent in do-everything RB Blake Corum, and look for their offense to play much better than the last two seasons.
    9. Fresno State honestly played Oregon close, promising a bright Mountain West future for the Bulldogs this season.
    10. Tulane, under extraordinarily difficult circumstances moving the game during a hurricane to Norman, played the Sooners within single digits statistically, as that score was no fluke. Green Wave should be bowling come December.
    #10     Sep 7, 2021