Surf's been making bad calls lately? As I recall, last year his market calls were usually quite good.
Because we had a Dow Theory sell signal last week and many got bearish. Combine that with 3 weeks of bearish sentiment and here we are.
Thanks Ben for the free money tonight...Short ES from 1481.75 and targets clicking off on the way down!!!
from MNI: Nov 29 / 18:45 ET Bernanke: FOMC Must See if Risk Bal 'Shifted Materially' _ By Steven K. Beckner Market News International - Warning of potential consumer "headwinds" and additional financial restraints on credit-sensitive sectors, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said Thursday evening that he and his fellow monetary policymakers will have to judge in less than two weeks whether or not the balance of risks to the economic outlook has "materially shifted." Bernanke did not prejudge the Federal Open Market Committee's decision, noting that the Fed's interest rate-setting body will get "a good deal of relevant information" between now and its Dec. 11 meeting. While the Fed will be "carefully" watching for worsened financial strains on the economy, it will also be "closely" monitoring inflation pressures and inflation expectations, Bernanke said. But he seemed more concerned about the threat of a worse-than-expected economic slowdown than he did when he testified before the Congressional Joint Economic Committee on Nov. 8. Indeed, while leaving open what the FOMC might do on Dec. 11, he seemed to suggest that the Fed must be prepared, under certain circumstances, to act very quickly. The Fed will need to be "exceptionally alert and flexible," given the "greater than usual" uncertainty facing the economy and the financial markets on which it depends, the Fed chief said. Bernanke's relatively brief but hard-hitting comments came in prepared remarks to the Charlotte, North Carolina Chamber of Commerce, which gave the Dillon, South Carolina, native its "Citizen of the Carolinas" award. He began by recalling that, at the time of the FOMC's last meeting on Oct. 31, economic growth had been "quite strong," but that committee members decided -- in what the minutes revealed to be "a close call" -- to cut the federal funds rate another 25 basis points to 4.5% because they "took the view that tightening credit conditions -- the product of ongoing stresses in financial markets -- and some intensification of the correction in the housing sector were likely to restrain economic activity going forward." The FOMC's belief in late October was that the economy was apt to "slow significantly" in the fourth quarter, "remain sluggish in early 2008," then "gradually return to a pace approaching its long-run trend as the drag from housing subsided and financial conditions improved." At the same time, he recalled, the FOMC "remained concerned about the possible effects of higher energy costs and the lower foreign exchange value of the dollar, especially the risk that they might lead to an increase in the public's long-term inflation expectations." Since the last meeting, Bernanke said economic data have been "mixed." He described residential construction and home sales as "weak," but called the labor markets "solid." He said claims for unemployment insurance "have drifted up a bit in recent weeks," but said that "on average, they have remained at a level consistent with moderate expansion in employment." He said job and income growth will be key to underpinning household spending, which he described as having been "on the soft side." He expressed some unease that spending could get softer yet. "The Committee will have considerable additional information on consumer purchases and sentiment to digest before its next meeting," he said. "I expect household income and spending to continue to grow, but the combination of higher gas prices, the weak housing market, tighter credit conditions and declines in stock prices seem likely to create some headwinds for the consumer in the months ahead." On the other hand, inflation has to remain a policy concern, Bernanke indicated. While core inflation "has remained moderate," he said soaring energy prices are adding to overall inflation. And he said increases in food and import prices "have the potential to put additional pressures on inflation and inflation expectations." "The effectiveness of monetary policy depends critically on maintaining the public's confidence that inflation will be well controlled," Bernanke continued. "We are accordingly monitoring inflation developments closely." The chairman made clear the FOMC will be looking beyond the economic data to the repercussions of the recent relapse in financial markets back in the direction of the kind of conditions that prevailed in August and September, when the Fed began cutting rates and pumping extra liquidity into the system. "The incoming data on economic activity and prices will help to shape the Committee's outlook for the economy," he said. "However, the outlook has also been importantly affected over the past month by renewed turbulence in financial markets, which has partially reversed the improvement that occurred in September and October." Bernanke noted that "investors have focused on continued credit losses and write-downs across a number of financial institutions" and that "the fresh wave of investor concern has contributed in recent weeks to a decline in equity values, a widening of risk spreads for many credit products (not only those related to housing) and increased short-term funding pressures." He said "these developments have resulted in a further tightening in financial conditions, which has the potential to impose additional restraint on activity in housing markets and in other credit-sensitive sectors." "Needless to say," he added, "the Federal Reserve is following the evolution of financial conditions carefully, with particular attention to the question of how strains in financial markets might affect the broader economy." Bernanke summed up without a clear tilt toward near-term rate action, but certainly with a sense of heightened readiness to act if necessary. "We will be receiving a good deal of relevant information in the coming days," he said. "In making its policy decision, the Committee will have to judge whether the outlook for the woesome or the balance of risks has shifted materially." "In doing so, we will take full account of the implications for the outlook of both the incoming economic data and the ongoing developments in the financial markets," he went on. "Economic forecasting is always difficult, but the current stresses in financial markets make the uncertainty surround the outlook even greater than usual," Bernanke concluded. "We at the Federal Reserve will have to remain exceptionally alert and flexible as we continue to assess how best to promote sustainable economic growth and price stability in the United States."