alright, time to throw in your 2 cents. So we finally close above that 1280 level after vibrating between 1260 and 1280 for the past month, only to pullback through the previous resistance. What's the next move. Although I'm not full blown technician I am aware of most of the patterns and don't have much faith in them. The bull trap, however, has been quite reliable. Can we please hear some useful commentary and not personal attacks and position protection.
Hard to tell; thing is, the Dow is still in it's short term trading channel, it seems to hold. Relevant level right now as I'm typing this appears to be the 10870 level. Looks like it wants to test the 11000 before the bulls get slaughtered. Still a stand off IMO.
Well, somebody's got to kick this market in the ass and get it moving one way or the other. If the VIX gets any lower we might as well just close the markets and save the electricity.
Truth, I think that is a good point. Vix nearing all time lows when we're at a critical turning point, either up or down. No one seems to be afraid on either side. IMO this complacency will bring about a violent move.
Great discussion -- and I like no personal attacks. It seems a foregone conclusion that the market will be okay until January. Whenever something is a "given" in the market, I force myself to question that assumption because the market doesn't like to do what everyone thinks it should do.
just one way of looking at it, that seems to suggest a continuation for the bulls: There is still a fair amount of bearish sentiment...which can be translated into "there are still new buyers that can enter the market". I've been considering as well...w/ the economy going well and alot of people w/ jobs, and real estate starting to slow down...there will be new people w/ money to invest. If the market breaks and holds more 4 year highs, it could draw some of that 'new' retail money in. Just one small perspective.
I would short the S&P on the open Monday morning providing it opens near where it closed. Should make a lower low monday. If it open down quite abit from where it closed (I doubt it will) then I would not short but wait for the lower low to bottom and go long for a p.m. rally. The tape shows weakness however, it is of the type of weakness that could recover quickly.
Don't misinterpret this truism: the market also doesn't like to do what nobody thinks it should do. I personally refer to chart patterns/collective behaviour patterns as "open information oligopolies". A trend channel wouldn't work if nobody traded it as it (probably) wouldn't work if everybody traded it. IOW, don't be a contrary contrarian
The market is screaming out..."Help" It might rally for what is left in December, but even if it does, The Dow will drop 1,000+ pts in early 2006.. ( no later than May)