Did everyone see that last long evolving? ... This thing is like a money printing factory ... sheesh! :eek:
Since the zero-line cross is nothing more than a 9/26 MA crossover (works great no doubt in these markets) . . . is there anybody who uses this, but filters out certain crosses under any certain circumstances? ie, is there a time you elect not to take the crossover signal? JS
One good question deserves an equally good answer. *** It's like this folks. Trader28 has shared the basic system and his approach to trading it freely. What has happened is that I'm taking his basic method (with 1 or 2 days of coaching - which is all you really need in a real trading "bootcamp" if both the teacher and student are serious and competent traders) and running with it. I am researching what I can to refine the method (gotta love google) and "make it my own". I'll share the basic materials that I find freely here on an anonymous trading board, but the research and tools I put together to make the system really kick-ass, regardless of the volatility of the market I am trading, are mine. Good trading P.S. The paper is a scholarly study where the participants added in refinements to the basic MACD Indicator and produced a profitablity profile of 85-90% ... automated.
M, Fair enough. Thanks for sharing the paper. Definitely don't expect you to give away every last good idea. . . I'm prepared to view this through my own trading lens. Thanks again. The paper, and as you mentioned/hinted, indicates that volatility is a good thing to increase the performance. Without baking any indicators into the mix, but instead using good 'ole price action, my observation suggests that the zero-line crosses aren't especially powerful if preceeded by chop (ie, volatility temporarily subsiding). At least that's my take-away for now . . . until I can put another few hundred hours into it. Love this stuff. Good trading. JS
A lot of allday bears didn't see that last move shaping-up and got hosed. While the MACD does not predict the volatility of the move, it does tell you which side of the road to be standing on when it happens.
Another possibility is that since volatility cycles back and forth, that maybe this would work best COMING out of no volatility, and after a period of volatility, that time to expect some chop. Could even do something like check for sequences of losing and winning trades and see if there is a pattern with that. From my simple SPM programmed sim auto traded blah blah, you can see this from today, this might also be to some bad programming, I gotta work at this a lot more yet:
Today's trades: Profit : $507 after Slippage & commission 4 winning trades, 7 losing trades - see attached I haven't included the momentum and keltner band filters in the code but will do so soon. System should not generate entries if price is out of Keltner band. Also, no short entry if momentum is at the bottom 'oversold' zone and turning up; no long entry if momentum is at top 'overbought' zone. These simple filters would have filtered off some of the losing trades. Still, $507 profit per 1-lot contract position. We may have to adjust the stop ... based on a dynamic value, rather than hard $ stop. Note the buys at 10:34 and 15:42 generated when cross is above zero - very good trades; same for short at 13:50 <img src=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2140741 width=800>
Sounds good. Thanks for your great work, it actually impacts everyone regardless of whether they are totally automated or not ...
ES 5m made $1300 today See attached chart <img src=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2140751>
Jahajee, THANKS for your work on this! When I first looked at the 5 minute chart you posted, it appeared signals were generated when the RED line crossed the zero line, not the blue line. Then, after reading your posts and looking again, it appears instead you may be waiting until the momentum indicator becomes neutral to enter a position. Is that correct?