All I can say is Amen Brother I will contribute my bit, I find that one of the best scenarios is to get a wedge in price paired with an indicator, like the MACD, for timing purposes, to get best bang for the buck I would use perhaps 15m chart as a filter, especially in todays volatile markets & enter off 2m signal, but entry purely off 1m chart to narrow stops. Also, patience is a virtue, it pays to sit on hands & observe others get crushed as they enter early, anticipating a reversal, awaiting price to get into a wedge which ImPO is one of the best basic price analyses that shows reduced buying interest in a bullish oscillation & reduced selling interest in a bearish oscillation. Now, where do I get a free coffee in this joint?
Yes, you may be "late", but on a 2 minute chart you will not miss much of the move. If you wish go down to a 1m or even a tick chart. Of course, the profit objective would be smaller as you work with lower timeframes. But, even with 2 m charts you can pick up 3 or 4 points on each trade. As I have mentioned before you can use momentum to filter or time entries, e.g. if the MACD BUY is triggered and momentum is headed down, then wait until it turns up... also use momentum to exit. As soon as momentum turns down then exit. As Mandelbrot has advised to many: you need to spend time in front of the screen... with a 2m chart, and possibly a 5m or 10 chart so you can see the trend in the longer timeframe. Also, put up the momentum indicator and in another window a chart of TICK so you can try to use tick to help with entry and exit. Or you can also put up volume indicator and observe the volume spikes as market moves and changes directions. But, the MACD cross is the key, use other indicators to filter and confirm the trade. REMEMBER: be patient, wait for the right setup, get out if market turns around, with small losses rather than waiting or hoping market will come back to your trade. If a trade goes against you come out - the markets will always be there and there will be more trades. If you are not comfortable with a trade or the market is stalling then exit and look for another trade. Don't force the issue - go with the market flow rather than expecting the market to do what you want. Also, use stop loss of 2 or 3 points or more and profit targets of double that, e.g. 4 to 6 points. But, the stop and profit target must be proportionate to the ATR. If volatility is high (as has been the case of last 2 months or so) then your stop must be wider or else you may be stopped in the same or next bar! Put up the chart and jot down the trades (paper trades) and your stop and profit target, and when you exit before stop loss of profit target is reached e.g. if market goes against you. While paper trading Imagine you have money on the line... can you pull the trigger? how do you feel when trade goes against you ? Can you exit without much hesitation or second guessing yourself? Do this for a week or two until you are in sync with the market and able to call the entries and exits... try to go live, with one lot ES. Stop if you are not comfortable or not getting the entries and exits properly. Spend more screen time ... wait for the high-probability profit trades, where the cross is almost vertical or a steep angle, which indicates a fast moving trend is underway. When you enter a trade, immediately put in a stop order. E.g. buy ES at 968.75, put a sell stop loss order at 963 or 962. This is a worst case scenario that will get you out of the market if market moves quickly against you and you are not aware it has moved so quickly and so much. BUT REMEMBER TO CANCEL STOP ORDER after entry is closed. After you have been with it for a while you can discontinue this hard stop but work with a mental stop order. Initially, make a few trades and take the profit quickly... build confidence... relax... be patient... don't take low probability trades. At end of day, print the charts and look back at what you did and how you could rectify errors etc. Did you panic? Did you lose patience? Did you try to force the trade? to "cheat" and front-run the markets? Did you get too greedy and waited too long for too much profit? Takes a bit of time to get the hang of it but these markets are brutal - you must have practice and gain confidence and skill to be profitable.
See attached chart of today's trades - both cross above and below zero (there was none?) and the looser entry when MACD avg crosses above or under zero line (most of trades). The first pane momentum overlaid on 5/34 oscillator. Even on a tight range choppy day like today you could still have made a few points. I use Keltner bands to exit - so first trade with a strong trend up MACD avg crosses above zero soon fizzles out but as soon as momentum turns down and price is above Keltner, exit the trade with a point or two profit. Trade 2 at 10:30 is another one that dies aftertwo bars but again you could have exited as soon as momentum turns up at 10:36 to 10:38 - you had a warning with that candle at 10:32 with the long tail. The other two trades were similiar but the next two at 11:40 and 12:52 netted more points. Th buy at 15:40 would have been closed from 15:50 to 15:52 as soon as Keltner band is pierced and price retreats with doji bar and momentum has turned down. I don't enter new trades after 15:55 <img src=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2159496 width=800>
Good to see you here JSS. If you'd indulge us, could you provide a few examples of your post here? Quite a few of us here appear to be visual learners.
I want to say thanks for your input and willingness to share. I appreciate it and I know others do as well.
My curiosity was peaked when I saw that you had painted out the area at the bottom of your last account performance pic next to where it says "connected". No matter what, your trading is going great, with a high win rate. Keep it up. And I can't wait to be in for a big surprise that you mention. I know, how about surprising me with a shot of your Ninja Dom tomorrow?
<i>"You guys are taking what is simple, complicating it, and not paying attention to what is on your screen. That is a sure recipe for failure."</i> Not long ago in the ET barroom here, drinks were being hoisted to chants of "price action only" mantra. That crowd must be sleeping off their stupor, because the new happy-hour crowd is in full-indicator mode. The more things change, the more they remain exactly the same when it comes to human behavior. Truth is, both crowds are half-correct. Indicators work very well... for their intended use. That would be indicating the sentiment of price action in any moment in time, with a body in motion expected to remain in motion law at work. Expecting to enter new trades on a simple next-bar open after some oscillator crosses over something (whatever) will fail over time. That is a terribly inefficient way to open any trade, period. "Seeing" pure price action alone leaves too much for interpretation unless some type of measurement tools are applied. Opting to use oscillators as a visual confirmation of price bias AND then turning focus to precision entries in harmony with that bias is where high-odds success exists. Oscillator crossovers alone are a losing proposition. There is no magical setting which will signal correctly across all trades. Fast sessions will eat up slower settings... choppy sessions will eat up faster settings. End result will always be failure over time thru all market conditions with one oscillator setting. Knowing how to measure - read price action is where the edge begins to exist. Forget about discovering an optimal setting for MACD that makes money thru all price action behavior. That's just futile efforts at curve-fitting results to current market mode. Total waste of time. Get real good at measuring = interpreting price behavior in harmony with MACD directional bias.
You got curious because I obscured confidential information? Oh, that's kinda silly, but OK, I'll show you my DOM. Notice that I've whitened out: a) The account information (yep, that's confidential too). b) I haven't whitened out the Strategy which says "ES TRADE", but if you look at the DOM, you'll see $346.13 ... anybody who trades the ES knows you can't get that number trading it ... c) and notice I have the ES price ladder up? that's deceptive too (LOL). d) the order qty, stop loss, profit target and whether or not I use a custom stop strategy (that information is confidential too, and outside the protocols of SPM). e) i also had to whiten out the account information in the upper left hand corner, that one almost slipped my attention. Hope you're statisified, considering all the things I had to take care of today, I am. Today's profit: $346.13 P.S. Feel free to enlighting us with all of your trading knowledge and account information Giant Dog, put fully on display on an internet forum. P. P.S. If you haven't already done so, don't forget to vote!