LOL, there isn't too much happening on a slow day like this. Maybe you should try posting charts and getting a critique on them ... it can save you months of screen time. All you need is: 1) a two minute chart 2) a MACD 3) a SMA (3,1)
Perfect analogy! On a separate subject, while there's been plenty of clear discussion on how/when to enter, I haven't seen the same clarity on how/when to exit. Earlier you mentioned that $200 could have been gotten on the first short before it whipped back to switch into a long. So, how do you know when to hold for $200, $400, $800+ (like yesterday afternoon) etc.? I suppose you'll say read the price action, which comes from experience......but please try to be a bit more specific than that. I've been trading the ES full time for 3+ years, but that doesn't mean that I know whether it's next move is going to be 4 pts or 16 pts or whatever. It doesn't seem that using fixed targets and stop losses is conducive for making this strategy work consistently. Some guidance here would be appreciated. Posting charts and showing what could have been gotten in retrospect is easy (Jack does it all the time ).....knowing how to manage the exit in real time is the hard part. Kudos to those who have posted blotters (Mandelbrot & Voyageur) that show that they know how to manage the exits.
Ok. It took me a while to get on the right side of this. I am not very good at this. Anyway, .20 in SPY is about 2 points ES I believe. One mistake I do is get in at the worst spike point, only to see better prices later on. So what I did after the first two trades is use the 3SMA as a point I can offer or bid after I see the signal. For instance I saw the ZLC at about 10.45a and then offered 93.40 since that was where 3SMA was, instead of selling right at 93.25. Then I went for the 93.05 as an exit, which was about .20 and also whole number support. I did the same thing on the next short, you can see there was a tiny MACD cross while below zero line. Because of offering out I could get that scalp. Basically I need to make sure I am only exiting at volatility extremes. In general use some vaseline in your critique lol.... <img src=http://elitetrader.com/vb/attachment.php?s=&postid=2150438 width=800>
I think here the 10min chart you mentioned is good. Can see overall the uptrend that started yesterday aft, but on 10min it MACD'd down while still above zero line. So now, plus fed day, can see best to take faster exits. Perhaps after the news is out and if the 10min gives a MACD cross while above zero line, there will be more to get out of any longs on the 2min chart. I think.
I can't see what the setting is on your moving average, so I'm going to assume that it is a simple moving average of 3 with a forward offset of 1 (but it doesn't look like it). The first short that you took a loss on ... I would have held on to and scaled in with another short for the win. I only would have taken the loss if the MACD turned positive (which it did not). The first Long trade you took with the upturning MACD looks like a pretty good trade. The first trade with a matching MACD crossover is ususally a winner, for the second and/or third trades to win you would need an extended trend.
Yeah it is a 3 period SMA +1. After that bad exit on the short I decided I better be more careful about bailing. The second long I think was a ZLC that then turned back down. I think the long at about 11.23a on another day or time of day can get more out of. Same with the other 2 longs. Here right now there is a MACD cross happening while above zero line. The thing is again would need to be in that from the pop up off of 3SMA, and basically possibly scalping the exit right now where I noticed this lol. I will need some more time to be trading on this "closer" level. If I can get it to the point where I am complaining about "leaving so much on the table" I might up the size on my SPY. Hey, $20 an hour is better than walmart.
LOL, it turns out that the last Long you mentioned has truned out to be a killer trade. The MACD just don't lie.
That was 93.78 on that. Would've had to hold do or die with wider stop. On that I use a %1.6 stop and price target, but it has a time based exit which exited at 94.01. I am backtesting longer times, I think this picky system is almost like longer term trade that starts off the 2min.
I've been lurking on the SPM threads quite awhile so I figured it's time to offer my 2 cents. Back testing (visually), I've noticed that waiting for a pull back to a 9 period simple moving average helps avoid buying or selling the top or bottom of a bar. I'm now working on visually calling entries in real time to get a feel for how the lines move. So far, I'm liking how waiting for a pull back is doing. At 1222 Eastern, we had a re-buy that is unlikely to come back to hit the 9 period SMA but it DID touch the 3 period +1 line. Of course, this is the downside of waiting for a pullback when a move takes off like this one did.
I'm like grandma in the slow lane lol. Give me a couple more days only day 4 here, never much of a futures trader.