There were more trades on more instruments than I had the time, money or inclination to trade today. And there will be more tomorrow, the next day, and the day after that. I advise you to not take our word for it, but rather to pull-up a couple of your favorite indice(s), apply the MACD Indicator as Trader28/Godsfinger has described its usage here, and see for yourself. At first just observe it, then paper trade it, taking notes for what works for you and what doesn't, and referring back here for information if you need to. Prove it works in SIM Mode and then go live. See you tomorrow.
Did anyone answer the question on how to exit? Entries are easy......exits are the tough part that determines profits or losses. Or is this another always-in strategy that generates 3x total daily price range like SCT does?
ES 5m data JUNE to OCT 2008 1-lot position size; Capital 10,000 Commission $5; Slippage $12.5 (Slippage & commission total $35 per trade) 141 trades, Profit 18,400 ---> 184% Allowed discretion on stops and profit target with wide stop and profit target @ $2000 each
Jahagee: Here is an illustration relative to how you have MACD tunned to price. You can use any of the three trading techniques cited but the gold version would be the quickestup grade to a good multiple of the ATR daily. And you probably can script it easily as an ATS for many markets. If you decide to move up to the green level (past beginner level), you must stop the MACD bridging that you current MACD causes. Have fun.
If you want setup the zero line histogram crossover on the gold version from JUN to OCT and do comparison to the 184% you got. I think it will show nicely that the SPM mixed up the signal for zero line crossover. Ordinarily it is applied to the histogram AND NOT TO THE FAST LINE OF THE MACD. A common learner mistake. Once the signal app;lication gets straighten out here, then the exit signals will be straightened out too. The zero line histogram crossover is a REVERSAL signal system AND NOT AND ENTRY EXIT SYSTEM. A common learner mistake. I think you will like the results. since you have everything right there to illustrate the backtest. Have fun. This can be helpful for upgrading the boot camp which is going to drop the MACD soon as they swing into PA trading when they do.
What you are going to find through experience is that when a trade has momentum behind it [as Trader 28 has described here], the trade will tend to go for quite a good long range, making anywhere from 16 to 24 ticks or more (this translates to 4 to 6 pts on the ES or greater). Conversely, when a trade does not have momentum behind it [as Trader 28 has described here] you will be lucky to make 4 ticks or more on the trade, and quite often they will turn around and reverse on you after making that small gain. I hope you (and the readers) understand the subjective nature of determining how far price can potentially move based on whatever market conditions exist for that trade in that particular market. Good trading
What are the exact entry/exit rules you used? I have tried backtesting this several times based on how i understand the rules...and get I negative expectancy every time...