Just look at ET, you have all kinds of speculators trying to forecast the market. They are going NUTS especially right now as longs don't know if there going to wake up to a 10 point gap then and another 40 point sell off like on 2/27. And bears are going crazy as they're getting smoked every single day. This is why speculators rarely survive past the ten year market. This is primarily because they try to understand a market that is as vast as infinity - the market as a whole cannot be understood or manipulated in any way. If it could be understood then you have complete idiots turning 2k into 2 billion. Market making, on the other hand is profitable. Buy the bid and sell the ask when there is a major demand/supply shortage/imbalance. No trying to understand the market, no forecasting involved. Investing is profitable. Just dollar cost average into a historical trend like buying the S&P index regularly and enjoy the average 8% yearly return or so that it offers on average. Even if one had started to dollar cost average into the S&P at the all time highs, he'd still be pretty big in the money right now. Remember with dollar cost averaging you buy more shares at lower prices and less at higher prices even though you go in with a fixed amount of money. Again no trying to understand the market, and no forecasting involved. Now I'm not saying all speculation is ultimately unwinable. Speculation can be 100% accurate and risk-free (its only worth it if these two conditions are met); but you have to develop a rare combination of market-making and investing. And avoid the forecasting and trying to make sense of the market trap.