Speculation on S&P500 futures (analysis and trading signals)

Hello!

I invite everyone to post their forecasts and trading signals for the S&P500 futures (short-term, medium-term, any) in this thread.
The more detailed your vision is, the better. Any discussions that do not go far from the topic of analysis are welcome.

I myself will also post my signals (intraday), and I will also keep statistics of my transactions.

My theory for gaining an edge in trading:
With random entries and exits, the profit/loss ratio tends to be 50/50, (and minus commissions and slippage, of course),
but if we enter on good signals, we get about 5% advantage (i.e. already 55/45),
if we also exit on good signals, we get another 5% advantage (i.e. already 60/40),
if we maintain a good stop / take ratio (for example, 1/3) - another 5% advantage (already 65/35),
if somehow we still manage to reduce losses and increase profits (for example, moving the stop to breakeven, closing in parts, etc.) - we get another couple of percent.
In general, all this is more than enough to make good money, even despite the costs (commissions, slippage, etc.).
Well, if we also reinvest profits ...
Of course, this all works, provided that all the basic rules of money management are observed, but we all understand this anyway.



* the price range for entry is marked with a blue square

 

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MOSTLY down \2022\ + medium term down;
short term anything can happen, even an oVerdue bear rally/LOL

 

I didn't know it was this easy.

 

Closed at breakeven.

 

Yes, basically everything seems to be moving down. But it moves with pullbacks, and these pullbacks can be profitable in the short term

 

It's just not easy, I think)

 

Man, you already broke the most important principle of posting trades. First, you intentionally left out the time marker on the chart. Is that an intraday or a daily chart? Second, you vaguely pointed out that you've entered short by drawing a box. You didn't even specifically state at what price. But that area you marked already transpired 9 HOURS before you made this post. Now that you say you got out at BE? It doesn't sound too convincing to be honest with you.

 

Yes, you are right, I made some mistakes. I will post more accurately in the future.

 

I'm a little confused. You're trading the ES there with no signal? that was an inside bar which would have been a go-long signal if anything when it's trading below the open. The margin on the ES is about 500 depending on your broker for an intraday (that's the lowest margin I know anyway) You would have had to hold through a 1000 dollar loss there to break even at a point where if you had held for another 30 seconds you would have made 500. There's something not right about that trade.

 

E-Mini S&P500 04.05 - Long: 3695.25