I'm new to commodities trading (as will be apparent by this newbie question.) I understand that the higher prices in the contracts farther out account for the contango, or cost of storage. Do these prices also include an expectation for seasonal price increases, such as due to the winter heating season or is it just the spot price plus the contango? With that being said (or typed rather), if you are purely speculating for investment, is there any reason not to just buy the closest contract and keeping rolling it at expiration? Because it would seem if the price for future contracts was higher only because of the contango, if you used the hypothetical situation that the price stayed flat, then you would lose money as the contango shrinks over time. On the other hand, if seasonal price fluctuations are built in, then would the best method to choose which month to speculate on involve simple drawing a trend line from the current price to the expected price in a future month and looking for a contract in which the price is the farthest percentage above the expected price? I'm probably making things more complicated than necessary (and looking like a fool.) But you have to start somewhere. If you want to give a example, let's assume I expect the spot price on Natural Gas at the expiration in December this year will be 5.00 Which contract should I currently buy? Thanks in advance for the clarification.