Anyone knows the percentage of probability of the daily price actually hitting the classic daily pivot, (high+close+low)/3, at any point during the regular market hours ? Particularly YM and ES. Thanks for any shared experience.
=================== Neet; Yes; its high enough %% to write down daily and I am not one to waste ink or anything else. Also its almost as good , but perhaps not as well known as a 50 period moving average. Still useful even if it doesn't hit, like a 50 period ma. Neet lets continue the ''neat ''comparison of PP with 50dma; below 50 dma is polar bear trend. Friday PP f for Es was1458.9 So it started bearish short term , ES opened price below PP 1458.9; downtrended from there, so it confirmed without ''actually hitting'' Of course ES,SPY is still above 50dma;=medium term uptrend High, lo close/settlement also important, perhaps more so; trade ES ,but notice YM recorded low of 12 666.
Murray, Glad to hear I'm not the only one paying attention to this, now I got a friend to compare results with. I mostly trade the YM and this past week playing the daily pivot gap fill or magnet, depending on strategy, paid off well. It was profitable except for Friday (yesterday), it never even got close to it but the loss could not touch the profit of the past three days. As far as the 50 day Moving Average I believe that would be a slightly different strategy since that one at any particular time is not written in stone since it changes on the fly contrary to the classic daily pivot which is a fixed number for the duration of the trading session. On another note, absolutely, the number of the beast (666), was THE pivot of the day for the YM on Friday. I prefer pivots to lagging indicators myself. Looking forward to your comments. Neet
there is alot more to trading index futures than the pivots or projected daily range ... but it does at times help in deciding when to pull the trigger on profits or initializing a position
I dont know the percentages but I always put the pivot on my charts in the morning. Many days it is of no use but occasionally you will find the pp heavily defended. Nothing works every day.
Hey Neet, There have been tests done on it. Try google for "Trading pivot YM" or something like that. I can't remember the page that I spotted it on but I found it through a google search.
I also watch the daily pivots and price always likes to 'test' this level at some point during the day, I'd say 8 times out of 10. Again how you play it though is another story. In Carter's book, Mastering the Trade, it states markets test their daily pivot level 90% of the time. No data to back it up, but follow price for a few weeks and you should have a good idea that this is true. It makes sense, price tends to gravitate toward the 'mean'. Another reversion to the 'mean' concept.