When you get a chance, please send me a private message (unsure how to find you here). Would like to chat a bit, if you're available.
The bounce has happened and now we are at resistance all coming together trendline, horizontal, and shorterm 20 day ema. If resistance holds than a retest of lows is more probable! There are higher resistance levels, of course, above these levels if the market wants to push higher but, first we have to see what happens here. I think technicals is all we have to go by now since nobody really knows what the fundamentals are of anything at the moment.
Given everything that is going on, lets take that aside for a moment and look at the technicals. The market has moved from one extreme to another. We're now at an equilibrium point of sort. 50% retracement. To get here we had to break thru initial resistance back at around 2595. Price action and momentum now in the last 3 days showing signs of weakness. We did come along way from the bottom very quickly already. Now add to the equation everything that is going on. This is still bearish for me.