SP500/Nas/Dow: Unchanged month with a lot of activity inside.

Discussion in 'Trading' started by gugu, Jul 30, 2006.

  1. gugu


    SP500/Nas/Dow: Unchanged month with a lot of activity inside.

    If we just saw the P/L result for the month on the SP500 and the major indexes (updated at July 30 without counting the tomorrow July 31 session) we can think nothing has happened and that the month was a waste of time, but, of course, that's not true.

    In the middle we had a lot of activity with a new attempt on the SP to cross lows and a new important low on the Nasdaq with a lot of big-cap tech stocks getting hammered.

    The balance is "unchanged" because the month is closing without major profit or losses on indexes like the SP but after the failure to cross new lows we can assume a double bottom set and now a market ready to climb levels. But, of course, we have to admit the market also failed to cross to the upside every time it had a chance during the last months adding more uncertainty to the situation.

    Technically, on SP500 terms, we can see the 1280 level as first intermediate level of resistance (almost where the market was closing the last Friday) and then a lot of resistance levels upstairs ready to stop any bull attack (like 1297-1305 and 1318).

    Below the situation looks even more complicated, with a lot of levels to stop any dip (1258, 1239, 1228, 1224 and 1220). Something that looks like a hint of a market trading on a tiny range during august.

    So, two scenarios emerge as the more accurate: First one will be a market remaining in a trading range on the coming day or weeks around 1240-80 with lot of swings and uncertainty (something pretty similar to what I imagine on the rest of the financial products).

    The second is an immediate cross of 1280 confirming a market with a new uptrend in midterm in place but a lot of resistance levels to fight. On this environment we can expect a trading range between 1270 and 1305 on the coming month considering narrow volatility and volume due to the summer and the ending of the earnings season.

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