I don't think it's about calling tops and bottoms.... It's just, we don't really have an easier word for saying "Hey, it might be risky buying here. So, longs, be careful." There is absolutely no reason to sell now....and that might make it worthy of wondering, "are all longs in yet?" nobody ever knows. The problem, is.......the ES could go up 11 more points.....stop you out...and then fall and you don't get back in....or go up 17 more points.....stay there for 3 weeks...then fall.....etc, etc......or gap lower by 80 points. I think the Fed is still active....the dollar is finding some stability but not out of the woods...... but "calling a top" here makes perfect sense to me......just let me know at what level your analysis is wrong, and maybe a timeframe. but if not, no worries, I still understand what you are saying.
Not yet, soon, there's still room left, let the yearly hit the line first. Then wait for the daily to turn, weekly and monthly to follow would seal it, combined with toppy seasonality, you would have a high prob top. Do be on the lookout for Trader Vic's 2b tops as well.
OK, looked around, found nothing. Did find one from oldtime, and a lot of his wisdom though, so thanks for the suggestion. This guy, much lower quality stuff, but he does seem to post a lot in the same places as oldtime. Someone may be following the other around. By the way, don't do me any favors. Not interested.
This all just seems like a classic secular bear market from March 2000. We are waiting for the 5th leg. Which will be downwards, and massively so.. What are we all debating exactly? That this bear will be different for some reason?
I used to try hard when I was younger to forecast all the S&P 500 tops and bottoms. Soon, in frustration, I remembered only the occasional call where I made out and forgot the calls which were far more costly than I had gotten right. Then I retired to trade when I felt like it. So now the only tops and bottoms I call out are to my old buddies are at the college spring break in Floridaâ¦and my old buddies still disagree with me⦠but whoâs complainingâ¦
Well, apparently you need someone to spoon feed you then. Trust me, if it took more than 10 seconds, i wouldn't waste the time with you. http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=251232&perpage=40&pagenumber=3
my guess is we are not at the point of " wow. how smart I am", but we are at the start of phase III or end of phase II. when the fed starts to tight credits or raise interest rate, after two to three times , those topping signs put out, .... do not be a last fool to jump in there for dow 20000