SP500 - High Probability predictions for 2016

Discussion in 'Stocks' started by Autodidact, Jan 4, 2016.

  1. Bry

    Bry

    yeah, Vindago, hedge yourself in every way possible: "depending on everything else happening that moment, and how traders are responding to it"...that way no matter what happens, you seem to be right.
     
    #51     Jan 10, 2016
  2. Vindago

    Vindago

    Bry, no need to hedge, I do day trading and I trade what I see. and... should volatility raise too much I'll stop trading. Volatility is good but increase the risk of sudden wide moves and I do not want to risk being blooded by extreme slippage.
     
    #52     Jan 10, 2016
  3. dartmus

    dartmus

    Having someone else think I'm right is meaningless. Being right requires including tangibles unaccounted for. Mindnumbinglly simple internal events nested within each of the larger setups u described. If u ignore them and there not present 'this time' the larger setup fails. U take a loss instead of profiting on the failed setup. That's fine if ur stats say it averages in ur favor but even then ur missing out not thinking u can't do better by second guessing ur setups.

    I'm a fan of Nodoji and grateful for everything she teaches. But I've found my best stuff, which has lead to even better stuff, comes simply by noticing 'this time' really is different. Quantifying it and thus modifying the rules to where it's not second guessing. Why can't u find tangibles nested within ur setups to distinguish, in advance, failures from success? Think about it. U described large bar intervals. Is there nothing inside those events that should rightly so, alter ur opinion in the present moment? Something u can formulate another rule for?

    oh yeahhhhh, bry!
    that's the true way traders hedge
     
    #53     Jan 10, 2016
    Datum likes this.
  4. dartmus

    dartmus

    Bry, I read DbPhoenix exit a trade once by saying he was expecting buyers to show up and they hadn't magically materialized the way he anticipated. I had to think about that a long time before I discovered what it means to me. I think of it as a gas pedal on a car. Other traders like IAN will suggest the speed at which a trade is moving can be measured and quantified as on time or behind. It doesn't have to b making progress every moment but when it's not moving at a critical moment there's valid reasons behind it.
     
    #54     Jan 10, 2016
  5. speedo

    speedo

    The S&P will fluctuate...be long when it's going up and short when it's going down. Some may first need to develop the ability to recognize the difference.
     
    #55     Jan 10, 2016
    Stewie likes this.
  6. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    Long NQ 4243.00 march (size divisible by 5), position trade, not a scalp.
     
    #56     Jan 10, 2016
    FCXoptions likes this.
  7. Bry

    Bry

    Fair enough, V, u explained yourself well. Thanks.
     
    #57     Jan 10, 2016
  8. Bry

    Bry

    Hi, dratsum,
    Vidalgo expanded and he makes perfect sense to me now. When I first read his response it sounded like trading platitudes: "I might go long, I might do short, all depends." For a day trader that is so very true.
    Yeah, I suppose there are valid reasons for every market condition. Thanks for your reflections.
    By the way, everyone, I am thinking my entry might take place closer to the middle of the week because weekly red candles as big as last week's rarely turn around on Monday. All depends....
    Bry

     
    #58     Jan 10, 2016
  9. Autodidact

    Autodidact

    Confirmed and confirmed.
     
    #59     Jan 11, 2016
    FCXoptions likes this.
  10. Bry

    Bry

    I started scaling into SOXL about 20 minutes before close. Will add on tomorrow if today's high of 20.50 is breached.
     
    #60     Jan 11, 2016