Trading "only" 1000 contracts? LOL When was the last time you came even remotely close to that number? I, on the other hand, believe long-term prediction is not only possible but absolutely critical. It's part of the planning. Just as with any sound business plan, trading needs to incorporate a long-term outlook.
Did I post somewhere that I do that volume???? On top of that I will never post my trades nor the volume. If these predictors are so good it is not a problem for them to trade that volume. 1000 contracts a day is nothing in the ES. Daily volume is calculated in millions of contracts a day. If I could predict a year in advance with 97% accuracy I would trade 1000 contracts a day. But I can only calculate the probability for the next 60 minutes with high probability. Long term plan by jumping in and out 10-20 times a day??? That's closer to HFT than to long-term.
They invest mid term, but they sell high and reload? That's what I do to. But on average twice a day. I took a position years ago and every day I tried to sell with big profits to enter later again at a better price. They only invest midterm if they would say today: I will go long till end of june. But if in three weeks the markets changes direction, what will they do? Only go long till end of june? No. Which means that they don't invest mid term.
So what's stopping you from trading 1000 lots? So what about it? Why can't I make long term projection and day trade 10-20 times? I'm sorry but you, like any other self-glorifying traders (read: doting idiots) who only like to talk without actually showing their hands, are held in low-esteem. Anyway, I bid you well.
Posing this question after what I wrote confirms that you are a newbie. In and out in 60 minutes with 1000 lots is not optimal. But you don't know that as you trade probably 1 lot. Those who post are the idiots, not those who don't post. Those who post want to be recognized as supertrader. I know why I don't post realtime and even noit remote. And my ego has no problem with that. I don't need recognition from others. You can post because not a single professional trader will copy your jumping in and out. Has nothing to do with real trading. This jumping in and out proofs that you have no clue where the market will be in 15 minutes.
That's the biggest bullshit I've heard in a while. If that's true, not only will you not reveal your trades, you would also stop dispensing your worthless wisdom as well. In another word, why are you here in the first place? I wonder who's really stoking their ego. Go ahead, have the last word. Your ego won't stop until you do.
Schizo's performance on last friday's 30 points down move and after that the 30 points up move: Code: Today's Trade Stat No. of Trades (Round-trip)*: 16 No. of Winners: 7 No. of Losers: 9 W/L Ratio: 0.78 Avg Gain: 2.82 Avg Loss: 2.55 Cumulative P/L: -3.25 Points * Breakeven trades have been omitted I must admit that it was impressive, completely miss the 60 points move. Confirms again that Schizo has no clue what the market will do. 16 trades throwing darts.
I'm sorry but I need to bud in here. If you were at all familiar with his journal, you would see how highly profitable he actually is. After weeks of calling trades in real time, he is ahead by quite a good number, and if if was about the money, trading more than one contract can be easily accomplished thereby increasing the profit in terms of dollars versus points. You have shown absolutely nothing about actual live trading so you are in no position to comment on someone else who has been 100% transparent. I was taking note of the gentleman, fortydraws, who was calling trades on Friday because of how highly he has been talking about you and about how this all comes down to mathematical models. I tracked each entry for the initial longs, of which there were 4 since he had such a strong conviction that price would hit 74. I then saw how quickly he moved all these contracts into a short position once stopped out, only to get stopped out again. The total losses were at least $2.6k. Now this is in no way mean to be a criticism as this is both not your trading, nor is trading ever done with 100% conviction in which way the market is going. But I bring it up because this was a trader who felt very confident in his mathematical model and yet traded it not too well. Maybe these losses are nothing in terms of the size of his account, but it just goes to show how being so sure about a move can actually still lead to losses, which is what an actual trader has to deal with in real time, not someone who just talks about the theoretical nature of how markets move. So what have you actually shown? When you don't mention a single trade, you will of course never be wrong. I'm not sure how digging up his stat in any way proves whatever it is that you are trying to prove. Are you saying you captured 60 points? If you want to get into a pissing match, which it sounds like you want to do by bringing this up, its time to start calling some trades in real time and show the rest of us how this is done. Otherwise, just stick to your generalizations about the market or whatever other useful thing you think you want to share, but leave the actual discussions about trading to the guys willing to call trades in real time and share their wins and losses. I've been here long enough to know that everyone is an expert about the market, and yet nobody can show any profitable way to trade it. Anyone other than schizo that is. Therefore, everyone's opinion here is absolute bullshit until they can in some way demonstrate the ability to enter and exit trades reasonably well enough to lead to consistent profits over time.
My name is Pekelo, pleased to meet you. Look up my Bitcoin predictions for 2015, including range, they were all right on the money. Hell, my prediction in this thread got fulfilled in 10 days or so, although that was for the year... I am not sure what you mean? People complain here that retailers can't compete with HFTs but that is bogus. As long as one is ridding the trend, it doesn't matter who is on the other side...
I followed his journal and told already in past that he has no clue about trading. Jumping in and out every two minutes. My holding times are from a completely different kind. I do on average 2-3 trades a day and take big parts of every move. Last week my average net profit per trade (so not per day, but per trade) was between 15 and 20 points). So also friday I had an excellent day. The fact that he can even not make 1 point out of a 60 points move tells the whole story. And again, NO I will not show any proof. The only conclusions that you can make is: I don't want to show but that does not mean I am a losing trader. There is no relation at all between profits and posting real time. In general very profitable traders don't post any trades at all. The fact that I don't want to show does not make any difference about the results of Schizo. There is also no relation at all between his performance and the fact that I don't show anything at all. I posted in past realtime trades but quickly stopped for various reasons. I was already on ET more than 10 years ago, so 10 times longer than you. Most of my postings date from the period BEFORE you came here. You have, just like most people, no clue at all if I am good or bad. And I want to keep it that way. Do you really think I am such an idiot that I would give away +20 years of studying the market for 10 thousands of hours? I am not Santa Claus. People who read very carefully what I post can find valuable things in these postings. I post my life experience without giving away any secrets. But I do it on my conditions, not on yours. I criticize, but explain why I criticize. I showed how miserable last friday was for Schizo, that's reality and can be proven. In fact Schizo himself provided the proof. If people don't like this they should not read it. But if their ego gets in the way they should put aside their ego because otherwise they will get hurt severely in future or will never become successful. I choose my nickname because I really think that I am nobody. Just to show that my ego is not important for me.