1) 2015 lows will hold in SP500 in 2016, no doom and gloom, and no, I'm not a permabull, ask me again in 2017. 2) Resistance and high probability of 2016 year highs *AREA* marked on chart attached. More high probability predictions (> 90%) incoming within 90 days, need more data. Best wishes. Disclaimer: Technique used to predict the above remains private, don't ask. However, do make money with the above.
always easy to be right when your not going short.. most guys on wall street tend towards this behavior as it ends up being right more often then not..
Better than 90% prediction? I suppose you received the same crystal ball from Walmart for Christmas. (Just make sure to return it within the next 90 days for a full refund.) BTW my newbie hunch tells me you have a long open position despite your statement to the contrary ("I'm not a permabull"). I'm notorious for gunning after stops.
If you wish to bet against my call, I'm open to suggestions, but I'm sure you will just say your position is your bet, chicken chicken.
Well, even though I have my opinions about market direction, I'm merely a day trader. All my trades have been openly posted here for everyone to see. So there's nothing to be coy about that. Be that as it may, if you don't mind me sharing my otherwise worthless 2-cents, here's what I see for 2016. 1) We will see 1900 as the low for ES in the month of January. That's only slightly more than 100 points from where we are now, so no big deal. 2) In the latter half of 2016, we will see ES trading below the low trendline drawn on your chart. 3) By the end of the year, we will be in a full recession (defined as 20% decline).
http://www.elitetrader.com/et/index.php?threads/the-acd-method.170318/page-1024 (See video)He got a lot right in 2015 and expects spillover into 2016. What didnt happen was a break of the 125, USD/JPY level. That could be a key factor in 2016. Concidence that the ECB and BOJ both acted to prevent this as well knowing the fed was lifting off? Ive seen estimates that the Fed needs smooth trending to 2% CPI, 2.5 avg GDP and 5%, stable, unemployment to continue. Fear of China exceeding already negative expectations seems enough to increase volatility. How and when does all this resolve? I would think in the meantime price can test 2015 lows. No bet here, however.
Long Term am short the Indexes, did some debit Call spreads today in ES, my system says new highs eventually, I will lose out in short futures, took profit on half, it automated system and this is 22nd year have used it. Shows lower prices for Live Cattle and Feeders, long Nat Gas but more downside for other energies. Everyone has opinions, you could become wealthy on my opinions as I am 95% of time wrong, but I am systematic on when it comes to trading. That just goes to show me that what charts show to make sense to my brain without rules is exactly what big professionals want all of us to think what the markets should do. I am most likely using too much of comparing what the economy is doing and trying to beat the market, but I am smart enough to know not use opinions in trading. I do believe Long Term trading going to be a tough year of congestion overall, but that is an opinion, LOL, so I should clean up? LOL