Its certainly possible but it wouldnt stay down there very long (unless we have some sort of financial collapse like back in 2007-2008) - it would probably be more like the V shaped drop and recovery from Oct 2018 (2965-2970) to Dec 2018 (2330) to recovering in full a few months later. So while its certainly possible we could have an even greater percentage drop this time 3200 to 2500 or even back to 2330 it would likely bought back up sharply in my opinion (absent any financial collapse scenario like in 07-08)
That's what i think too. It doesn't seem like recession is anywhere close. A sharp drop down, and then a strong pullback. That's how most people get screwed. Keep buying on the way down and then shorting on the way up. Trump gets impeached and markets crash. Then he gets re-elected and everything goes back to normal. If i had enough money to manipulate the markets, that's how i would engineer it. That's what bull markets do. Violent shakeouts.
I am now short the stock market. I use tight stops, i want market to roll-over soon. This is the trading part. It's about probabilities. I think the risk-reward, paired with probabilities, makes this trade worth it. I find it very funny how "fed is injecting money in the market" became a meme. No-one mentioned that when i was getting long at 2850 prior to the breakout. FED liquidated all of your a*ses trying to short on the way up, now they will dump on you. Have fun.
Shorted 98, went 4 points lower, then it reversed and i covered at 2 points loss. I still think the same, but to get the timing right,... that's the hard part. Higher timeframe is still up, so i will wait until i get a setup/confirmation. What i think a good plan is to buy put options with 2300-2600 strike price and 1 year expiry towards the end of december(around 24th) or the first half of January. Because if you are shorting parabolic futures market on leverage, you might end up getting stopped at the very top, only to see the market reverse without you. Which has happened to me before. I'll be leaving the forums though. Because ego gets the better part of me, i will get the urge to be right and prove something... It interferes with the process, clouds judgement and makes you more subjective. All the enemies of good trading. Bye.
The House hasn't decided yet whether they will send the Articles of Impeachment over to the Senate for "trial" .... possible leaving Dump in Limbo about him making exoneration claim.
But if you stick with it, and post your true trading, you'll build some serious character. I've done it, and there's already one person out there calling me a "terrible trader", because I am not posting bombastic results, or for whatever reason. Has that changed my trading style? Not in the least. I do what I do, and post the results that I have. That is integrity. You posting your bits here should not interfere with your trading. You are accountable only to yourself, not to these other wags. If it does impact your performance, then yes, take a break from posting here and go earn the monies! But remember...Any judgment you may find here is ephemeral, and is from a bunch of jamokes. Treat the Internet for what it is. A silly place. Don't you remember Camelot?
Unemployment still at historic lows. Stock market still hitting record highs every week. Average home value across the US still going up a very steady and sustainable 3.8% per year. Life is good. We're not in a crazy get rich quick scenario like were were with the Dot com and real estate bubbles. The only sign that a recession is coming is the fact that we've gone so long without a recession it "feels" like we're due...but we might go another 10 years without one.
Sustainable? Nothing is. But I agree recession is still out there. At some point. So called poetic justice would have it happen in Dump's 2nd term.