Seriously. These guys calling for a return to all time highs AFTER the market already was the most overvalued in history. So IF this thing ever recovered those levels with negative GDP, then what??? Bagholders need the encouragement to keep holding which is what the reflexive bear market rally will do pretty shortly IMHO.
The question you then have to ask (as a prospective student) is "Would I be willing to trade bigger size than he does...and if not, how much would I really make in the long-term since most of the time we're in bullish/flat markets with sub-20 VIX levels"? As far as I know, he doesn't post any long-term performance stats.
The baby boomers have had 3 do over's to get it right. Meantime, they've been the greatest beneficiaries of this prolonged neverending asset bubble. Home equity skyrocketed (even made whole following the bubble bust of 2008-09). Every Presidential candidate is also a boomer (even though they are well past retirement age). FWIW, I'm in my late 40's so I'm not some Millennial/Gen Z hipster bitching about it. It's just an observable fact.
Most overvalued in history based on what? Valuations were very rich, but if you look at a basket of them, the market was more overvalued before the tech bubble. Here's one of the clearest examples. https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe
3015 is the 61.8....pretty close to that 3040 level that was significant last year. Wouldn't be surprised to see a move up to that area, then a very long term down trend
Right, I know everyone has a different metric. But ask yourself, if we are really comparing "overvaluation" against the dot.com bust then we are just splitting hairs. Meantime, we've added untold amounts of debt to fuel this reflation and the energy sector has completely imploded. (Tech has still escaped relatively unscathed, far less than it was in the 2018 correction).
Going back to the previous market regime before this meltdown has been bothering me so I've been starting to trade other assets.... Surprisingly, bitcoin futures is one of them (shorted a little last week for some coin.) I'm not sure I trust them, but the BRR index seems to be less manipulated than GC.
I would not be surprised if we got there, but would you buy there? We need a bear market, not just a correction. We need some fear back in the markets. The buy-the-dip crowd hasn't been flushed out yet, imho.